The prexy is a Trump

Today is the day the whole world probably hoped should never have come as Donald Trump takes his oath as the 45th president of the United States. The Donald has said enough things during the campaign and during the transition period to usher in a period of uncertainty.

The Donald has totally disrupted the world to make the immediate future a bit of a question mark. He promised to upend prevailing world trade patterns. He questioned the usefulness of NATO, the bedrock of the Western security alliance. He has interfered in the affairs of Britain, a key ally, by endorsing the appointment of the Brexit leader as ambassador to the US and he encouraged more EU members to leave the union.

It is funny that at the Davos conference, the leader of China, a communist country, is singing hosannas to free trade and globalization while the Donald, the leader of the biggest capitalist country, is threatening protectionism. Like his speech during the APEC conference in Peru, Xi Jinping in Davos praised free trade and urged countries not to close themselves off to global commerce and cooperation.

What is going on in the world today? Has the sun spewed out too much toxic radiation in the Earth’s direction to cause all these disruptions?

Lucky for us, we had a head start. We elected as president a man, who like Trump, speaks first and his aides clarify later. So we are not as shocked by the Donald’s rants.

Trump is just more techy than PDutz. He tweets first and his aides scramble to try to mitigate the damage later. Indeed, the aides of these two men blame media for the resulting backlash. They urge media to be more creative in reporting the impulsive statements of their boss.

That’s good advice. There are enough reasons not to take such statements at face value. During their confirmation hearings, Cabinet nominees of Trump publicly took positions that are way different from that of their boss. Trump didn’t react negatively. He even praised his nominees for thinking independently.

Perhaps, Trump the president-elect is laying the groundwork for dissociating his incoming administration from the outrageous pronouncements of Trump the candidate. As in the case of our own Mr. Duterte, that’s always a good sign.

No, Mr. Trump… you can’t build that wall any time soon, nor can you deport 2 to 3 million illegal aliens without disrupting the economy. No, Mr. Trump… you can’t impose a 45 percent tariff on imports from China without a serious backlash on the US economy too.

As for exiting NATO… for sure Mr. Trump the president will be under extreme pressure even from Republican allies not to dismantle the very foundation of the Western security alliance. Mr. Trump may be in love with Vladimir Putin, but that’s just him. Even members of his national security team consider Russia the biggest threat to the US.

For one, Trump’s choice for secretary of defense named Russia as one of the nation’s three most important adversaries. “I think it [the United States] is under the biggest attack since World War II,” said retired Marine General James Mattis, testifying before the Senate armed services committee.

Trump has sharply criticized US intelligence agencies for accusing Russia of interfering in the US election, favoring Trump over Hillary Clinton. But Trump’s nominee to head the Central Intelligence Agency took a contrary position during his confirmation hearing.

“It is pretty clear about what took place here, about Russian involvement in efforts to hack information and to have an impact on American democracy,” testified Republican Rep. Mike Pompeo, the CIA director-designate. “I am very clear-eyed about what that intelligence report says and I have every expectation we can continue to develop the facts.”

Across the pond in Europe, Trump’s recent statement about NATO being obsolete has caused a lot of concern. Worse, Trump said the European Union is just “a vehicle for Germany” and he predicted more countries would follow the UK’s Brexit.

Trump may just galvanize Europe to unite at a time when there are strong forces suggesting fragmentation. Counting out the US as a dependable ally may just force the Europeans to depend on their own resources and chart their own destiny as a regional bloc.

 In Asia, Trump may think he is rattling the Chinese. But it seems the Chinese are more creative in reacting to Trump’s incendiary statements. They see Trump as the consummate deal maker and he is just making his opening gambit. The Chinese are among the best dealmakers too so they are probably thinking they can work a deal with Trump.

Indeed, the Chinese may prefer to deal with Trump who is transparently pragmatic rather than the Democrats with their ideological baggage on human rights among others. As CNN’s Fareed Zakaria observed, Trump could be the best thing that happened to China in a long time.   

Zakaria thinks “the next stage in China’s strategy is apparently to exploit the leadership vacuum being created by the United States’ retreat on trade. As Trump was promising protectionism and threatening literally to wall off the United States from its southern neighbor, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a trip through Latin America in November, his third in four years. He signed more than 40 deals, Bloomberg reported, and committed billions of dollars of investments in the region.

“The centerpiece of China’s strategy takes advantage of Trump’s declaration that the Trans-Pacific Partnership is dead… Now China has offered up its own version of the pact, one that excludes the United States and favors China’s more mercantilist approach. Australia, once a key backer of the TPP, has announced that it supports China’s alternative. Other Asian countries will follow suit soon.”

Many observers think Trump will make us “live in very interesting times”. But even if this is not exactly a Chinese curse, “interesting times” may describe the coming Trump era for much of the world.

Twitter feeds from @realDonaldTrump will be eagerly awaited. He is likely to use Twitter when he tests the waters for possible policy pronouncements. Sound bites from the Donald rather than policy speeches will be the norm. This is just right for today’s generation whose short attention span gave rise to the 10-second YouTube posts.

We can expect the Donald to be as impulsive as ever when he tweets. But in time, even the Donald will realize that running the government is more complicated than running his business. And making a deal for a Trump Tower or casino is a walk in the park compared with making a deal with China or Europe or even with the Republicans.

Indeed, Vanity Fair tongue-in-cheek headlined that the Donald is “already weaseling out of being president. Who can blame the 70 year old billionaire, really?”

Vanity Fair explains: “He is a billionaire accustomed to choosing when to come and go from his Fifth Avenue triplex, and taking a chauffeured car or private plane to his resorts in Palm Beach and Bedminster whenever it suits him.

“Serving as president, on the other hand, is a duty. It’s the highest office in the land. You’re the leader of the free world, the voice of a nation. You end up in every history book forever and you get your very own library. But it’s work, certainly. Soul-crushing, heartbreaking, back-bending, insomnia-inducing, impossible-to-imagine work.”

Nevertheless, I think the Donald will have fun being POTUS. Other heads of nations should have no trouble dealing with him so long as they put their own egos aside and handle the Donald like a narcissistic individual that the Donald certainly is.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is[email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochancoo