`Estrada would still win in snap polls'

Less popular but still a winner.

If snap elections were held, President Estrada would still win despite his falling approval ratings, the independent polling firm Pulse Asia Inc. said yesterday.

Pulse Asia chairman Felipe Miranda told a news conference at the Ciudad Fernandina in Greenhills, San Juan that 1,200 respondents in the Dec. 9-20 survey were asked who they would vote for in a snap election.

Mr. Estrada emerged on top "by the skin of his teeth" with a much reduced plurality of 19 percent, Miranda said.

This was just two percentage points ahead of Sen. Raul Roco, who placed third in the May 1998 presidential elections.

Mr. Estrada, a former movie star and college dropout, won a landslide victory in that election contested by nine candidates, taking nearly 40 percent of the votes cast. He was followed by former Speaker Jose de Venecia of the then ruling Lakas-NUCD, and Roco, who ran under his own Aksyon Demokratiko party.

In a one-on-one battle between the President and an unnamed opposition fi-gure, Miranda said Mr. Estrada would still get 40 percent of the votes while the opposition would get 30 percent with the rest remaining undecided.

The Pulse Asia survey also showed the President's approval rating at 53 percent, down from 61 percent in the firm's survey last September, and 74 percent last May.

A survey taken last December by another group, the Social Weather Stations Inc., and released earlier this month said Mr. Estrada has an approval rating of 44 percent.

The President had since revamped his Cabinet and put on hold his unpopular plan to amend the Constitution through the Constitutional Correction for Development, or Concord.

Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had a net approval rating of 78 percent, Senate President Blas Ople, 44 percent; Speaker Manuel Villar, 31 percent; and Chief Justice Hilario Davide, 29 percent.

Six non-Cabinet officials had positive net approval profiles with Philippine National Police chief Deputy Director General Panfilo Lacson posting a majority approval of 62 percent; Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Jejomar Binay, 50 percent; Armed Forces chief Gen. Angelo Reyes, 50 percent, Civil Service Commissioner Corazon Alma de Leon, 48 percent; Sandiganbayan Presiding Justice Francis Garchitorena, 45 percent; and Ombudsman Aniano Desierto, 44 percent.

The survey, called Pulse Asia's "Ulat ng Bayan" (Report of the People), had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Miranda told the news conference that the President's latest rating had remained "positive."

However, he said his firm's next survey in March would be the key.

If the President had not stemmed his falling ratings by then, "that might be a critical development" as no chief executive had had his ratings fall non-stop for such a long period, Miranda said.

"This is a critical condition, if this trend continues, Mr. Estrada will not only lose the confidence of the majority but will also set a record of having the longest declining popularity (period), which should not go beyond six months," he added.

"Declining popularity also happened with (former President Corazon) Aquino and (Fidel) Ramos, but they had the chance to recover after six months. If Estrada fails to win back public confidence by March, he will set a new record after 14 years," Miranda said.

Other findings of the survey were that 65 percent of the population considered themselves poor and that 48 percent believed their quality of life deteriorated in the past year.

In addition, 28 percent said they believe their quality of life will get better this year while 27 percent said they expect things to get worse.

Miranda, a political scientist, said this was an alarming finding since the majority of Filipinos in previous years said they expected things to get better even if they had just gone through a worse year.

"But this year, the optimism of the Filipino ran out," he said.

Despite the growing feelings of pessimism, a majority still supported the President, Miranda said, remarking that "even while things are getting harder... that is not enough reason to desert the President."

"I think the Filipino will still give him a chance," Miranda said.

Forty percent of the respondents also rated "national economic recovery" as the major issue facing the country, 37 percent listed "low pay" as well as "high prices of commodities" and 32 percent pointed to the "great poverty of Filipinos" as well as "graft and corruption."

The same survey also showed Sen. Loren Legarda and Roco topping public acceptance, scoring 80 percent and 73 percent, respectively.

Legarda topped the 1998 senatorial elections, while Roco placed second behind now Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in the 1995 elections.

Roco expressed satisfaction over his continuing increase in public approval, even as he noted that the public has been very critical of government officials lately.

Pulse Asia said that senators continue to pace public officials in performance ratings, with most of them maintaining or even making marginal gains on their already-high September 1999 ratings.

Sen. Juan Flavier retained his third rank in net approval rating among the senators with 69 percent. He is the top-ranked among the re-electionist senators in 2001.

Sen. Renato Cayetano is fourth with 67 percent, followed by Sen. Ramon Magsaysay Jr. with 65 percent and Sen. Sergio Osmeña III, 62 percent. Both Magsaysay and Osmeña are re-electionists.

Rounding up the top 10 in net approval are: Vicente Sotto III, seventh at 61 percent; Robert Barbers and Rodolfo Biazon, joint eighth, 60 percent; Franklin Drilon, ninth, 59 percent; and John Osmeña and Aquilino Pimentel Jr., joint 10th, 58 percent.

Bringing up the rear are Sen. Robert Jaworski with 35 percent and Sen. Gregorio Honasan, 34 percent.

Over at the House of Representatives, erstwhile Majority Floor Leader Manuel Roxas II enjoyed the highest approval rating with a net score of 49 percent, followed by Bohol Rep. Ernesto Herrera with 45 percent. Parañaque Rep. Roilo Golez was third with 43 percent.