Warm, wet Christmas this year – Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos may experience a warmer and wetter Christmas due to the developing La Niña phenomenon, the state weather bureau said yesterday.

Officials of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the La Niña event, although expected to be weak, may bring above normal rain in different parts of the country for the remainder of the year until March next year.

“Although this is likely to be a weak La Niña, it will have significant effect,” Ana Liza Solis, officer-in-charge of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction center, said.

Solis said there is 70 percent of La Niña development, citing latest forecasts of international climate prediction centers.

“If La Niña forms, it is not expected to last beyond March 2018 but varying impacts may occur,” she said.

Solis said by next month, generally near to above normal rainfall conditions are likely over the entire country.

The eastern section of Luzon and most parts of the Visayas and Mindanao will also have above normal rainfall by January 2018, while the western section of Luzon will experience below normal rainfall.

In February, the Visayas and Mindanao will continue to receive above normal rainfall while generally near to above normal rains will prevail over Luzon.

Solis said near to above normal rains would continue over the Visayas and Mindanao in March and April.

She explained that during a La Niña event, the sea temperature near the Philippines is warm, triggering higher level of precipitation or rainfall and sometimes stronger cyclones.

“In general, we will experience slightly warmer than average temperature. The easterly wind is stronger during La Niña, so the northeast monsoon could not penetrate,” Solis said.

Easterlies are associated with warm weather while the northeasterly wind is related to cold temperature.

Meanwhile, PAGASA hydrologist Richard Orendain said some major dams in Luzon are nearing spilling levels.

For instance, he said Magat Dam in Isabela and San Roque Dam in Pangasinan are a few meters away from their maximum spilling levels of 193 meters and 280 meters, respectively.

“We expect more rains and we fear that these may release excess water during the Christmas season or by the second or third week of December,” Orendain said.

Solis said even if La Niña does not fully develop, there are other rain-bearing weather systems that are expected to affect the country, such as tropical cyclones and the tail-end of a cold front in the coming months.

PAGASA said the northeast monsoon is affecting Northern and Central Luzon while the tail-end of a cold front is affecting the eastern section of Luzon.

Quezon, Bicol region and Eastern Visayas will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms due to the tail-end of a cold front.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers mostly in the afternoon or evening because of localized thunderstorms. – Rhodina Villanueva