The bigger picture

There are so many ways to look at the numbers or statistical data. For accountants, they immediately look at the bottom line of the financial report to see immediately whether the company is in black or in the red. This is also the source of their conflicting opinion with the economists who often speak with so many “hands” in viewing statistics “in one hand,” and then look at the other numbers “on the other hand.”

All of us, of course, look differently at the number of cases of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, these are not mere numbers but we are actually talking about lives affected by the pandemic, not just here in the Philippines but the rest of the world.

But statistics at least remove emotion from the equations to better appreciate the actual situation on the ground. At least that’s how Socio-Economic Planning “acting” Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua would like us to appreciate the other side of the numbers behind the COVID-19 incidence pertaining in our country.

In fact, the NEDA chief pointed out, with a population  of 110 million, the infection rate of 478,761 in the Philippines as of last Monday “is not even 1%” of the entire Filipino people. Out of that 110 million population, I argued, the total of 9,263 Filipinos died to COVID-related causes, the less than 1% is still one too many.

“Of course, we’re very sad some that our countrymen, family and friends have actually passed away. But I think our performance is that we’re beginning to understand the virus better and our behaviors are changing and we are managing and we are not contributing to its increase again,” Chua retorted.

As the “acting” Secretary of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Chua also sits as a member of the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging and Infectious Diseases (IATF). President Rodrigo Duterte reactivated last year the IATF immediately after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic as the policy-making body on the government’s response measures.

During our virtual news forum Kapihan sa Manila Bay last Dec.16, the “acting” NEDA chief rued the huge costs to the economy of the nationwide lockdown in March 16 last year to control the spread of the contagion here. The community quarantines have since then been recalibrated in particular areas depending on the incidence of COVID-19 cases based on monthly evaluation of the IATF.

“The Philippines experienced one of the longest, broadest and deepest lockdowns. That’s’ why our economic performance is also one of the worst,” Chua conceded.

According to NEDA statistics, the economic growth rate averaged minus 10% during first three quarters last year. This is measured in terms of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, Chua recalled, when the IATF “revisited” the anti-COVID measures and adjusted quarantine policies, NEDA saw significant improvements in the economy. The NEDA will release the latest fourth quarter economic performance later this month but it is projected to be still double-digit negative.

“But it also means we can do more. And part of that is the cooperation of everyone to ensure that their actions do not contribute to a spike in the COVID cases because when that happens, we cannot open the economy further. So the cooperation of the people is crucial,” he urged.

In fact, the NEDA is keeping its target GDP growth rate between 6.5% to 7.5% average for this entire year and 8% to 10% by the year 2022, or at the end of the Duterte administration.

Chua credited the daily COVID-19 testing being done in our country has since then been ramped up somewhere between 20,000 to 40,000 with a capacity of 100,000 COVID testing per day. “We are actually number one in South East Asia in terms of (COVID-19) testing. As a direct result, cases increased but at least we know who are infected so that we can manage the risks,” Chua pointed out.

Because of these improvements in health system capacity, he echoed the government’s confidence to better manage the risks of COVID-19 pandemic. “We don’t have to wait for the vaccines to be fully available for all of us to begin our opening of the economy because we have lived with this virus for ten months already. The experience of far majority of people, is they take care of themselves and avoid being infected,” he stressed.

Chua argued the government must also take care people who lost their jobs, or lost their income, the hungry and all the other sick people and dying also of illnesses other than COVID-19 causes such as cancer, tuberculosis, pneumonia, lung disease, diabetes, etc. Of 390,000 deaths reported in the Philippines as of September last year, Chua disclosed, this constituted 96% of Filipino deaths due to non-COVID cases.

He counts upon though to the extensive information campaign done by the government agencies led by the DOH in public advisories to maintain the minimum health protocols, especially during the feared holiday spreader events from Christmas to New Year celebrations traditionally observed by us Filipinos with family gathering. DOH announced last Monday they expect the post-holiday surge of COVID-19 cases – if any – would kick in the middle of this month.

This is within the 14-day period within which COVID-19 symptoms will come out or manifest the body’s reaction to the infectious disease. However, the latest concern of the government is on the emergence of a new COVID-19 mutation that was traced to the resurgence of variant virus in the United Kingdom (UK). Chua, however, remains optimistic the Philippines will be able to overcome the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic starting this new year.

“The point is we also manage the risks, open the economy as quickly as we can so that we can recover,” the NEDA chief cited.

In the particular situation of our country, certain people would rather look for someone to blame when statistics to them do not look good at a glance. But obviously, they conveniently ignore the bigger picture. As the popular saying goes, they cannot see the forest through the trees.