Not aiming for normal

By now, we all know the reasons behind the enhanced community quarantine the need to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19 in order to keep our health system from being overwhelmed. When we look around the world as nations struggle with the pandemic, we can see that it is one of our only potent weapons against the spread of the virus. Yet that does not make the ECQ any less onerous, nor make the costs to the health and well-being of our people any more bearable. This is especially true because, as we have seen, such restrictions disproportionately affect the already vulnerable in society: the poor, women, the old and the homeless.

The ECQ is a crucial response to the pandemic, but it is not and was never meant to be a permanent state. Eventually, it will be lifted for all of us – in fact, some areas will be entering General Community Quarantine in May – but, this will not mean a return to our lives in 2019. We must be prepared to face what is being called “the new normal.” And by prepare, I mean that even while we are in quarantine, we should already be looking ahead at what may come, and taking what steps we can.

I say “may” because no one can be entirely certain what is coming. Just as the lockdowns and restrictions imposed to combat the spread of COVID-19 are unprecedented in modern times, so too will be what happens after those restrictions are lifted. There are guidelines for the GCQ, but changes and adaptation will be inevitable. It would be helpful for us to observe what unfolds with other nations which have previously imposed lockdowns, and which have now begun to lift them. We can root for our brothers and sisters abroad and learn from both their victories and mistakes, as they will learn from ours. Just as our LGUs have learned to copy the best practices of other LGUs, so too will nations learn from each other.

A caveat at this point: what I’m trying to do here is merely detail observations of what other nations are doing as they “reopen” after a lockdown, but there is no telling exactly how this, or the GCQ, will play out in the Philippines, nor will we know how wise these steps are until a few weeks have passed and the instances of COVID-19 infections in their regions can be re-analyzed.

In Europe, which has been hard hit by COVID-19, several countries are now beginning to relax restrictions. Amongst these nations are Germany, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Austria, Norway, and even Spain and Italy which have suffered heavily from the virus. While there are some differences – Norway and Denmark are re-opening some schools first, while selected stores are being opened in Italy and  Germany – there are many commonalities. Part of this is by design – European policy makers are worried about “the consequences of a fragmented approach toward the reopening, warning that if individual countries pursue their own plans without consulting with their neighbors, political tensions could result, much as they did when borders suddenly sprouted across Europe last month.” To this end, the European Union released a Joint European Roadmap toward lifting COVID-19 containment measures.

One of the recommendations of this roadmap is that the lifting of containment measures should be gradual, and not all at once. Most of the nations released their post lockdown plans as a series of stages, or phases, with two weeks or longer between each. For instance, Switzerland has a three stage plan for its re-opening: first, personal services such as hairdressers, physiotherapy practices, garden centres and nurseries; second, schools and universities; and third, bars and restaurants. Italy as well has a three phase plan, with book shops, laundries, and stores selling children’s clothes amongst those allowed to open. This staggered “reopening” is consistent with the advice of the WHO which has warned that the lifting of lockdowns must be gradual. The weeks between each phase serves as a buffer in order to guard against a sudden spike in infections which would mean that the virus had not in fact been brought under control.

Another aspect that these re-opening has in common was that the lifting of strict lockdown measures did not mean that social distancing and enhanced hygiene and cleanliness practices were no longer required. In fact, these became more important with the easing of the lockdowns and the increase of the number of people out and about. In many cases, the ability of an establishment to enforce social distancing amongst its customers and staff is a pre-requisite to being allowed to re-open. Making sanitizers available, and the use of masks while in enclosed spaces or on public transport are among the policies being implemented alongside the easing of restrictions in some areas. In the Czech Republic, the wearing of masks while outdoors remains compulsory, with no end date in sight.

From these examples it seems clear that even after the lockdown is eased or lifted, social distancing measures are here to stay. Increased emphasis on cleanliness is here to stay. Wearing masks is here to stay. This is not the “normal” that we are accustomed to, but it is a necessary transitory phase. In an article from Propublica, written as a letter of advice to Governors in the USA, the consensus of the experts was that the goal “isn’t to get back to a pre-pandemic way of life, but instead to employ whatever tools it takes to keep transmission as low as possible while restarting your economy.”

#AfterTheQuarantine is one of the trending topics I’ve seen on Twitter, and it isn’t hard to see why. We all want the quarantine to end, but we must temper our expectations. After the quarantine things won’t go back to normal, or at least the normal that we know of. We’ll be entering a “new normal,” at least for a while, until a vaccine or other more permanent solution can be found. In next week’s column, I’ll try to take and imagine what that may look like for us in our day to day lives.