Flatten the curve

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced over the weekend that Europe is now the epicenter of the pandemic. As the number of confirmed cases continue to rise in the affected countries all over the world including the Philippines, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is urging the use of aggressive measures, community mobilization and social distancing to be implemented to save lives.

This virus has spared no one. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau tested positive. The same is true with US actor Tom Hanks and his wife actress and singer Rita Wilson, Arsenal’s Spanish coach Mikel Areta, Chelsea winger Callum Hudson-Odoi, Italian football team defender Daniele Rugani, French basketball player Rudy Gobert, Utah player Donovan Mitchell, best-selling Chilean writer Luis Sepulveda, Spain’s equality minister Irene Montero along with her partner Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias, French Culture Minister Franck Riester, and British MP Nadine Dorries, a minister in the health department among others.

Outside of China, Italy has the highest number recorded with 1,616 deaths and 24,654 infections. Latest statistics from Worldometers show that Spain has 257 deaths and 7,550 infections while the US has 3,425 cases and 65 deaths. What have these countries done so far? Italy is in a complete lockdown while Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has placed Spain in a state of alert starting last weekend for two weeks. US President Donald Trump has also declared a state of national emergency. A community quarantine has been implemented in the Philippines with 111 confirmed cases and 8 deaths. This took effect yesterday, Sunday, March 15. This means that people are asked to stay home, domestic land, air and sea travel suspended, schools closed, offices on staggered work hours, telecommuting, adapting social distancing in transport services, cancelling events such as religious gatherings, concerts, sports events and others involving big crowds.

As governments plan protocols to follow to control the spread of the virus, we are now hearing the words ‘flattening the curve’. What does ‘flattening the curve’ mean? The curve in the graph shows us the number of people infected with Covid-19 during a span of time. The different graphs made by the hour or by the day shows us the resulting numbers. We can compare the flatenning of the curves and see the numbers with public or individual intervention and those without intervention. Clearly, the curves flatten out when the public listen and obey public health announcements and government advisories. However, when the public does not cooperate, the curve increases just like it did in Italy. Now, if the curve flattens out (lesser people become infected), then, the health care system can accommodate all those infected and properly address individual needs.

So, how is ‘flattening the curve’ done? Who will ‘flatten the curve’? What is the role of the community? The government has released a guideline directing the public and private sector to stop big events, holding religious gatherings, suspending school in all levels, curfew – all under the community quaratine program. Local government units have reinforced the national government’s call by enforcing check points, city-wide clean ups, etc. Family units have also created their own guidelines. All these efforts will surely ‘flatten the curve’. Our every move is crucial in ‘flatenning the curve’. Every individual must make a responsible choice not only for himself but for others.

Cancelling gatherings and closing down areas where people gather – such as schools, churches, malls, movie theaters and sporting events – is the most effective way to slow the spread of the disease.

Closing areas like parks is an essential part of the social distancing needed to slow the COVID-19. Organizers have cancelled SXSW – the huge music/film/tech/education festival-conference that brings hundreds of thousands of visitors to Austin, Texas every March. To date, the NBA, NHL and Major League Soccer have suspended play, MLB has pushed back the season start, the NCAA cancelled March Madness, several universities have cancelled spring football games, the PGA Tour cancelled the Players Championship, and the future of the 2020 Summer Olympics is looking dim. Nepal has shut down Mount Everest even before the climbing season starts.

The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival in southern California has been postponed, along with a long list of concerts and music tours, the video game industry’s largest trade show and all Broadway shows have been cancelled until April 12. All Disney parks have closed their gates. Ireland has cancelled all St. Patrick’s Day parades. In New York, the metropolitan Opera, the New York Philharmonic and Carnegie Hall cancelled performances; and the Cherry Blossom Festival in Japan has also been cancelled. There is a long list of big events that have been either postponed or cancelled to help slow down the cases of infection in the different countries around the world.

In the Philippines the following events have been cancelled or postponed: Postponed are: PBA Games, Manila Auto show 2020, WorldBex 2020, Palarong Pambansa, all UAAP Season 82 Events, Philippine International Furniture Show, Daang Dokyu film festival, Art in the Park, 98 Degrees Concerts, Running Man Variety Show, Greenday Concert, Khalild Concert, and Jimmy Eat World Concert. Cancelled events are: Civil Service Exam, Baguio’s Panagbenga Festival, Jameson Whisky SPD Festivities, Avril Lavigne Concert, Lubao Hot Air Balloon Festival, Bukidnon’s Kaamulan Festival, and Albay’s Magayon Festival.

Will these measures work to slow down the spread of the virus? Yes. But governments must ensure that these measures are done with clear implementation policies. Confusion, misinterpretations and misunderstanding can happen if the message is put across without clarity on the part of the speaker. At this point in time it is best for our leaders to go straight to the point, no side comments that could cause more confusion, heighten anxiety and panic among the citizens.

Do not go against the curve. Don’t be stubborn and selfish. Let us continue to be vigilant. As you protect yourself, you protect others. It is your social responsibility. Covid-19 attack is not over. It actually has just begun!