The volatility and unpredictability of Philippine politics is always a given and I have mentioned this in an earlier column, but the abruptness and speed of the social and political developments last week was mind boggling. The trigger was the one week time to file the Certificates of Candidacy by the aspirants for the different elective positions for the May 2022 elections. But the government performance in the last five and a half years, their response to the ongoing pandemic, the economic recession, and the posturings and overt values of the politicians, were/are the underlying causes of the extreme volatility of the political sentiments of the people.
There was excitement in the filing of the candidacies for president by Lacson, Pacquiao, and Moreno, but the high drama happened when Robredo finally declared to run for president and filed her certificate the following day, and the subsequent filing of Dela Rosa. The tremendous positive reception of the Robredo candidacy was a game changer that needed a countermove by the Duterte camp in the possible substitution of Sara Duterte in place of Dela Rosa, before the November 15 deadline. It also drew a knee-jerk reaction from Moreno which confirmed his pro-Duterte/Marcos leanings. The Pacquiao and Lacson camp are holding their horses unable to decide on a response that will not be damaging to their candidates. While the images appearing in Metro Manila, like whole buildings awash in pink, spontaneous posters, and people congratulating each other may be viewed as Manila-centric, the postings in the main and social media are also dominantly pro-Robredo and these are all over the country. The election is still seven months away and many things may still happen including Sara running for president, even if this has already been denied by herself and the president last Saturday. Still the events last week were a giant step for the Robredo camp and maybe for the Filipino people.
The Pharmally overpricing medical supply scandal could not have come at the worst time for the administration candidates, as the Duterte term is coming to an end and in their desire to stay in power. Government satisfaction and their potential candidates’ ratings are going down. The aggressive defense of Duterte of Pharmally and involved Cabinet officials, the attacks on the Senate, and the funny maneuvers of some congressmen on the witnesses are bullying tactics and overkill that are unacceptable to even minimally-decent people. It’s creating a backlash and blowback that is probably costing the administration candidates some seven million votes.
Some people believe the Duterte camp has a grand strategy to stay in power with all the maneuvers that the Cusi/PDP-Laban are doing, including a Duterte-Marcos tandem. While this is still a possibility up to November 15, this is "gaming" the system and a desperation move that will only fuel further resentment of this administration. From the erratic and illogical tactics like antagonizing the Pacquiao/Pimentel camp and the mixed messaging from the Duterte camp, it does not look like they have the algorithm for their plans.
The Robredo surge may be explainable if we do a sector analysis of the voting population, given the current conditions in these sectors. The wanting pandemic response of the government will have the doctors, nurses, and medical people tilt to the opposition, the economic recession and the devastation of the SMSEs have pushed business sector also to the opposition. The high unemployment and the chaotic education policies will also tilt the labor and education sector to the opposition. Then, the agriculture sector is unhappy about the rice and pork importation that are compounding their problems. The public denouncements of the Philippine Bar Association, the PICPA accountants, the Makati Business Club, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce, and Catholic/Christian churches on the power overreach by this government, also show a lot of sympathy for the opposition.
People Power is not necessarily about revolution, it is about people reclaiming their right to have their voice heard by the government officials and the government. In the past five years people have been afraid to speak up and voice their opinion. Recent and future events will show that people value their freedoms and liberties, and will reclaim their power to have a hand in their destiny. This is happening in Venezuela, Brazil, Myanmar, Turkey, and some countries in Eastern Europe and Africa. There are also upcoming elections in some of these countries. Hopefully, one of these countries or the Philippines will set a good example of the peaceful return of a responsive and democratic government again.