A pivot to China opens
As the whole world is on edge regarding the 2019-nCoV, taking measures to prevent the entry of a new coronavirus and contain if persons already infected have entered their borders, the country seems to have a conundrum of its own. In an obvious fit of rage, President Duterte threatened to cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in thirty days if the US will not reinstate Sen. Dela Rosa's US visa which was recently canceled.
What is the connection? This was the question asked by Sen. Panfilo Lacson. The VFA is now dependent on the reinstatement of Sen. Dela Rosa's visa? In other words, they both carry the same weight? The VFA provides security and counterterrorism assistance for the country while a visa only allows one to enter a country. So the country loses a key ally with its forces withdrawn just because his visa was canceled, which by the way he can always apply for another one. There was no mention of a total ban on entering the US. Foreign relations at play.
The wisdom of the Supreme Court is once again being sought on this matter. According to the Constitution, a 2/3 vote of the Senate is required before the president is allowed to approve any agreement or treaty the country has entered with another. Part of the check-and-balance of democracy. If there is a legitimate reason why President Duterte no longer wants to honor the VFA, the Senate must be informed and once again voted for. But the known allies of the president say otherwise, that he can cancel any treaty on his own as an executive decision. Again the battle of the legalese commences. All because of a friend's canceled visa. Sen. Gordon said doing things like this should not be "done on a whim, or caprice, or because you lost your temper.”
The United States and the Philippines have other agreements, the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). It is all about defending each other in the event of an invasion. We have been allies of America for a long time but with Duterte sitting as president an obvious pivot to China is evident. Dela Rosa'a visa cancellation might have given him the opportunity to cancel the VFA, even if he was only piqued by the Americans' move. But are the MDT and the EDCA next on the chopping block if one if his friends are "mistreated"?
There are even experts who say that China stands to benefit from a weak military agreement between America and the Philippines. We are not sure if this what Duterte really wants. But what about the sentiment of the people? America is still the most trusted country amongst Filipinos compared to China which has always remained at the bottom of the list. What will China do at Panatag Shoal when there no longer are American warships patrolling the area? Then the absence of a military treaty or agreement would send the US fleet elsewhere, at least farther from the Philippines. Will they finally be able to tow away the BRP Sierra Madre off Ayungin Shoal with no one to stop them? Obviously, we still need the US as a strong ally in this part of the world if only to pushback China's aggressive claims on almost the entire South China Sea. I'm sure other claimant countries would agree. We can't start ending treaties just because a friend was slighted.
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