Next week the midterm election will be over and the winners known, and politicians particularly will be assessing the implications of the results for the next elections in 2022. The number of winners supportive or opposed to the administration is a factor, but given the short-term loyalties of politicians, this will be a minor influence. More compelling and relevant is how the election results fit into the major socio-political trends in governance and governments in the world and in the Philippines.
In an earlier job as a consultant in SGV, it was usual for us to forecast/project business scenarios for 10 to 20 years. Then, I worked in a utility company where we had to forecast/project for 20 to 30 years. To do these, we have to study historical data, analyze trends, be updated on current developments, and create probable future scenarios. There are no guarantees that we will be correct all the time so we were just aiming to be correct 65% of the time. The same is true with socio-political and technological forecasts. I remember attending a strategy conference in Milan and in Guam seven years ago, and at the time we were discussing the coming of worldwide connectivity or internet access and driverless cars. Now it is a reality.
The socio-political trend I am referring is the future of Liberal Democracy in the world and in the Philippines in particular. After World War II and especially in the 1900s, countless articles and books have been written about the decline and even the demise of liberal democracy. Considering that modern liberal democracy may have started in the French revolution in 1789, some political philosophers were counting it out after 200 years. The rise of Hitler and other authoritarian regimes and communism could be some of the reasons, even if the concepts and ideals of liberty and equality were spreading all over the world, especially in developing countries. But liberal democracy was already practiced in ancient Greece and Rome thousands of years and modern liberal democracy were just revivals of these ideals. So, is there going to be a cyclical shift to liberal democracy coming soon from the current populist illiberal governments that are happening all over the world in Russia, China, Turkey, Venezuela, in most of the Middle East countries, and even in the United States of America?
I believe there will be a drift towards liberal democracy but not necessarily as part of a cycle, but due to the advances in information and communication technologies, and economic progress. Liberal democracy thrives best in an environment where economic wealth is more evenly distributed and information is available to more people. The successful liberal democratic states in Greece and Rome were small city-states with a large middle class, and citizens who were well informed in these small geographic areas. The Roman Empire fell when it over-expanded and widened gap between the rich and the poor. The continuing economic progress of the world and the Philippines, and the universal access to information via the internet will move most governments towards liberal democracy including in the Philippines.
By 2022, at an annual GDP growth rate of 6%, Philippine per capita will reach $7,000 in terms of purchasing power parity; and 80% of the Filipinos will be connected to the internet. This will be a scenario for a liberal democrat. It just so happens that Lacson is turning out to be a military liberal democratic politician and would be just the right candidate to transition from a populist government. Robredo and Poe are liberal democrats and may have a chance, but Lacson would be a better fit. For the past three years Lacson has also been doing the right moves, and his statement last week shows that he is aware of this possibility.