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Opinion

Magpale and Garcia should now focus in critical districts

WHAT MATTERS MOST - Atty. Josephus Jimenez - The Freeman

According to the Garcia camp, their survey shows that Gwen is leading at the rate of 65% for Gwen and 35 % for Magpale. But the Magpale camp has its own survey showing a Magpale-Davide win. The same survey shows Governor Junjun winning comfortably over Salimbangon. The challenge is how to translate surveys into votes.

Today is 15 days prior to election day. This is the most critical point in the campaign. Assuming that 65% of the voting populace has already made choices, there is still a remaining 35% uncommitted who are mostly millennials. Political ads should now focus on the needs, interests, and biases of the young. And the two candidates for governor should now focus on the three most critical districts, namely; the First District with a population of 709,660 and a voting populace of 373,647; the Third District with a population of 541,152 and a voting populace of 329,076; and the Fifth District with a total population of 328,514 and a voting population of 328,514.

And so, the total population if we combine the first, third, and fifth districts is 3,060,172 with a total voting populace of 1,031,237. That is more than one-half of the total population and voting population of all the seven districts, which is 1,903,470. Of course, not to be forgotten are the two next most populous districts, which are the Sixth District with population of 553,894 and a voting population of 297,878; and the Fourth District with a population of 484,198 and a voting population of 289,179. These two districts have a total population of 1,038,092 and combined voting population of 587,057.

The smallest congressional districts, the old southernmost fifteen towns from Argao in the southeast to Dumanjug in the southwest, now the second district (ADABOSS or Argao, Dalaguete, Alcoy, Boljoon, Oslob, Santander, and Samboan), and the newest seventh district composed of DRAMMBAG (Dumanjug, Ronda, Alcantara, Moalboal, Malabuyoc, Badian, Alegria, and Ginatilan), have a combined population of 454,194 and a combined voting population of 285,176. Therefore, the grand population of Cebu Province (excluding Cebu City and Lapu-Lapu City) is 4,552,448 and with a combined total voting population of 1,903470.

Cebu City has a total population of 630,003 (290,760 in the Cebu City North District and 338,243 in the South District) while Lapu-Lapu City has 214,117. All the above are based on the 2015 census. It is expected that by this time, there must have been an increase ranging from a low of 5%to a high of 8%. If I were the master strategist of either of the two candidates for governor, I would advise to focus on the biggest vote-rich cities of Talisay, Carcar, Naga, Toledo, Bogo, Danao, and Mandaue. Also, the towns of Minglanilla, San Fernando, Sibonga, Argao, Dalaguete, Badian, Dumanjug, Barili, Balamban, and most of the sixth district municipalities, like Liloan.

Elections are games of numbers. Master strategists must guide their bets by the Pareto Principle. Focus first and foremost on the critical few, and leave the trivial, peripheral and outlying and small constituencies as last priorities. And remember, the millennials are still undecided. Their campaign should target the young. They should all known about these very fundamental rules.

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