Are we headed for a "cold war"?

Recent news and events in the last few weeks leading to the New Year have been disturbing, not because it was surprising as there had been warnings, but because of the intensity and escalation of these events.

The latest is the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from the US and Russia's possible retaliation of expelling the same number of US diplomats in Moscow. This comes with accompanying economic and financial sanctions to specific officials on both sides.

The sailing of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea together with six other ships also happened just right after Christmas.

A few days ago, the US abstained or did not use its veto power during a United Nations vote on preventing Israel from building in their occupied territories. This angered Israel against the US and against the UN. Then there is the festering war in Syria with the involvement of the US, Russia, Turkey, Iraq, and the UN, and of course the continuing sabre rattling of North Korea against the western world.

The "Cold War" is a term used after the Second World War when relations between the US and the USSR allies during the fight against Germany become hostile due to the ideological divide between Communism and Democracy.

The US together with democratic allies in western Europe and Asia-Pacific on one side and Russia with the communist eastern Europe and China on the other side. Each side wanted containment of the others ideology and form of government and this was demonstrated in the proxy wars in Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, and Afghanistan.

There was no full scale war but pocket wars with either side supported by the US or USSR. Diplomacy was continuing, but espionage, propaganda wars, and appropriate economic sanctions were in place. The collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, with the eastern European countries becoming democratic and independent, diminished the superpower status of Russia that strategist thought this was the end of the Cold War

But now, Russia moved in on Ukraine and have intentions on their other neighbors, as they want to regain their superpower status. On the other hand, China had become an economic superpower and is now flexing its military power to the world.

The ideological divide is getting confusing as most countries, even the communist ones have and are adopting the free enterprise economic system even as they retain their dictatorial communistic political system. They had no choice, as the free enterprise economic system was the way to grow their economy, but it also ushered in a semblance of political liberation which entails certain freedom and liberties. To manage and contain the rising expectations of the people under the communist regimes, these communist governments have to assure them of an ever growing economy and prosperity. Russia had become very aggressive in Ukraine and the Crimea after a recession when oil prices collapsed. China has to poached on the neighboring countries territories to be able to access the natural resources that their growing economy is needing.

Incoming President Trump had emphasized priority on domestic issues and protectionism in his campaign, but his recent pronouncements and actions like talking to Taiwan and engaging China on the territorial dispute shows he does not take shit from them. While he has not taken issue with Russia as he has still to take office this week, the cyberespionage/hacking that China and Russia have been doing to the US will surely be on top of his national security agenda. And the US being a democratic state means that the voices of the Senate, the Congress and public opinion will weigh in in the actions of President Trump.

The worldwide implications of these events and more that are forthcoming are: "Uncertainty and Instability." In all my articles I have always talked about possibilities and probabilities. Any odds between 1% to 50% as possible and any odds between 51% to 99% as probable. In the coming years, particularly in 2017, there will be a lot more possibilities than probabilities both in the political and economic horizon. Maybe and I hope, the picture will get clearer as US President Trump warms his seat and get his bearings as head of the number one superpower, and Russia and China gets a measure of what is achievable in their economic and political spheres of influence.

To the Philippines, on top of the unfinished and controversial war on drugs of the Duterte government and the myriad political and economic problems confronting the country, the worldwide geo-political uncertainty and instability will take its toll. Our diplomatic position will relate to the ongoing talks with the local communist party and the Muslims. The West Philippine Sea/South China Sea issue will certainly be in play. And our foreign relations with the US, Europe, China and the rest of the Asian region, plus the Middle East will impact on the Philippine economy.

Our strong economic fundamentals that buffers us from external factors and assures us of growing GDP may be in for a bumpy ride if extreme world political events unfold. It is imperative that our government gets its act together and have a cohesive and comprehensive foreign policy with inputs from the best and the brightest to navigate the upcoming geo-political issues. Off the cuff and spur of the moment pronouncements of President Duterte and Secretary Yasay, which are later withdrawn may no longer suffice.

There is an 80% probability that we are headed back to a "Cold War," but this time from four corners. The US, Russia, China, and the Muslim terrorists. We should hope and pray it will be pocket wars, economic sanctions, propaganda wars, espionage/cyberhackings and brinkmanship rather than a "hot war" with nuclear arms that will engulf the whole world and bring us all to kingdom come. [email protected].