Manny Pacquiao is fighting Lucas Matthysse for the WBA welterweight title. Hooray. But is it the beginning of a farewell tour, or the end of an era? Is it the perfect time to set up a glorious climax to a once-in-a-lifetime career, or is it the depressing stage of a fighter holding on too long? I can’t help but envision a 40-year old Muhammad Ali unable to answer the bell against a bigger, younger Larry Holmes. I hope a glorious ending punctuates this astounding boxer’s career.
Pacquiao ascended on a confluence of circumstances: the absence of attractive heavyweight bouts, a downturn in the Philippine economy in 2005, the explosion of the Internet. He mowed down all his opposition for six years, and faced the self-limiting prospect of moving up in weight. He fought the best, some past their prime, some in compromise catchweight fights. But he fought the big guns. Over time, we lose context. We forget the how and the why. We forget the catchweight behind big wins. We remember images, moments. The second Erik Morales fight. The decking of Ricky Hatton. The demolition of the nice guy David Diaz. The Miguel Cotto-Joshua Clottey-Antonio Margarito series. And we remember the feeling of “wow”.
But time, like a stream, erodes even the toughest rock. Pacquiao is still a very good fighter. But he was a great little fighter who outgrew the field, and had to keep battling bigger and bigger foes. In Matthysse, he fights for a secondary title, but that’s not what’s important. The WBA champion is an exciting, dangerous but vulnerable fighter who has come up short twice in world title clashes. He was once out for 19 months when Viktor Postol knocked him out after breaking his orbital bone, an injury NBA players like Hakeem Olajuwon have had when elbowed at the side of the eye. Matthysse has also had his share of lackluster performances, and has not grown into a household name. As you’ve noticed, many people still don’t know how to pronounce it.
But what is important for him is that he is fighting the one and only Manny Pacquiao. Regardless of Pacman’s age, Matthysse – like the undeserving Jeff Horn before him – will gain a measure of legitimacy even if the win is a fluke. As mentioned, context disappears over time. Buster Douglas did the impossible by knocking out Mike Tyson, then all but faded into the background. Still, people remember that explosion in Tokyo.
For Pacquiao, this will likely be the preparatory step to a final bout, depending not so much on the outcome, but the fashion in which it is delivered. If Manny wins by knockout, we will hope again, that he can somehow be the devastating force of nature we aspire to be, and not a declining hero who reminds us of our own frailty. If he wins by decision, then subconsciously, our fear of his diminishment will have been confirmed. And if he loses, there is nothing left for us to cheer for. Instead, we will be in the awkward position of wishing he does not suffer any long-term ill effects.
Strategically, Pacquiao is clearly in transition. This is his first big promotion (four title fights in all), following the path of his idol Oscar dela Hoya. He is testing a new market in Malaysia, and will therefore have to fight at lunchtime for the benefit of the American viewing audience. At this point, every dollar counts. His name comes ahead of the champion’s, since he’s also paying the purses. If the card does well, it means the next stage of his career on boxing is secure. That part is only partially dependent on his victory.
Filipino fight fans are aching for a stupendous victory, a knockout that has been years in coming. Given Matthysse’s track record, it is unlikely, but possible. A big win would set up another couple of fights, in other new markets. More than that, it will shore up the sagging morale of millions who want a return to the pre-2012 Pacquiao. As time goes by, the chances get more and more slim. But one KO washes all the frustration away.
This is the second half of Pacquiao’s career. Fans are hoping it turns out like the second half of Kobe Bryant’s, not Michael Jordan’s.