No way to go but up

Rain or Shine, formerly known as Welcoat, makes its PBA season debut against Air21 in the first game of a twinbill at the Cuneta Astrodome this afternoon and all eyes will be on the Elasto Painters’ souped-up roster as the league’s newest franchise attempts to finally end two years of cellar-dwelling.

Since breaking into the league in 2006-07 after a rich championship tradition in the PBL, the team owned by Raymond Yu and Terry Que has struggled to keep pace with the rest of the pack. It finished each of its first two seasons with identical 7-29 records and last in all four conferences.

In its first-ever appearance, the Painters posted a 3-15 mark in the 2006-07 Philippine Cup with wins over Coca-Cola (85-75), San Miguel Beer (96-88) and Talk ‘N’ Text (78-72). At the time, seven-foot E. J. Feihl was still with the squad. Only Denver Lopez, Rob Wainwright, Jireh Ibanes and Jay-R Reyes remain from the pioneer cast this season.

In its second conference, Welcoat (as it was then called) registered four wins (over Sta. Lucia Realty, Air21 in OT, Talk ‘N’ Text and Coca-Cola) but still couldn’t advance past the eliminations. Coach Leo Austria went from Charles Clark to Robert Sanders to Wayland White in looking for a crack partner to team with playing assistant coach Alex Compton but the effort went for naught.

The story was the same in the last Philippine Cup where Welcoat won only three games (over Barangay Ginebra, Talk ‘N’ Text in OT and Magnolia) with new coach Caloy Garcia. The Painters lost 11 in a row to end the conference on a sour note. The streak extended to 15 starting the next conference then Welcoat won two straight to fuel a bit of a reawakening. In all, the team picked up four wins (over Purefoods twice, Magnolia, Talk ‘N’ Text) in the last Fiesta Conference where Garcia had the benefit of playing two imports in a handicap concession.

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Reviewing the team’s last Philippine Cup stats, you’ll notice the Painters were badly outplayed in nearly all departments. They were last in offense (the only team to average less than 90 points), field goal percentage (.374) and fastbreak points (7.4). They were outrebounded in 15 of their 18 outings and winless in eight games when compiling more turnovers than the opposition.

But the good news is Rain or Shine can’t get any worse and the Painters are due for a breakout. This could be the year when they get rid of their doormat reputation.

Garcia has overhauled his lineup and brought in six new faces, seven if you count Lopez who sat out the last conference in sick bay (he averaged 7.7 points before going down with three games left in the previous Philippine Cup).

Scratched from the opening day roster were Joe DeVance (to Alaska), Niño Gelig (despite a strong preseason showing), Joey Mente, Froilan Baguion (to Coca-Cola), Adonis Sta. Maria, Estong Ballesteros (now an assistant coach) and Jojo Tangkay. The holdovers are Reyes, Wainwright, Ibanes, Ryan Arana, Mark Isip, Don Dulay and Allan Salangsang. Newcomers are rookies Gabe Norwood, Sol Mercado and T. Y. Tang and veterans Eddie Laure (from Alaska), Mark Andaya (from Red Bull) and comebacking Gherome Ejercito (whose last team was Red Bull in 2005).

In the preseason, the Painters showed clear signs of a new beginning. They beat Purefoods twice, 99-90, and 86-72, and repulsed Ginebra, 69-64. A 90-77 loss to Alaska was a wake-up call to reality.

Leadership on the court is what the Painters lacked the last two seasons. Now, Garcia has Norwood to solve the problem. Norwood isn’t a go-to guy in the mold of a Willie Miller or Mark Caguioa but he’s a capable extension of the coach on the floor. Norwood has the ability to bring out the best in his teammates. His sense of teamwork will be a major boost for Garcia.

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To jack up the offense, the Painters must run a lot more and score in transition. Mercado and Norwood are deadly finishers but they’ve got to get the ball first on the break. That means Rain or Shine must work doubly hard in controlling the defensive boards or forcing turnovers to create transition opportunities.

Garcia’s big men Isip and Andaya aren’t big-time scorers but they’re blue-collar workers who will allow Reyes to blossom at the three spot. If they get the job done off the boards, Norwood and the others can take care of the offense.

What Garcia must resolve is the bottleneck in the backcourt where the Painters seem to be overloaded. Tang, Lopez, Dulay, Ibanes, Mercado, Norwood, Arana, Ejercito, Laure and Wainwright are all guards although some are versatile enough to play forward.

Garcia’s big plus is he has multiple-position players, giving him a lot of options to create mismatches. For instance, Norwood noted in his PBA bio, that he played four positions at George Mason University and three with Hapee Toothpaste in the PBL. Reyes is another player who could shift from three to four to five.

It’s possible Garcia could transform Rain or Shine into a full-court pressing team, what with Tang (he got used to trapping at La Salle), Dulay, Ibanes and Arana in the fold. Maybe, that’s the reason why he beefed up his backcourt.

Ejercito’s reappearance comes as a surprise. He’s 31, a five-year veteran and a defender with a lot of length. He’ll surely make the most of his new lease on life. So will Lopez who’s a stabilizer in a slow game.

As for shooters, Garcia has the luxury of tapping Laure, Wainwright and Salangsang. It’s important that the Painters are ready to take the outside shot when Arana or Mercado are hemmed in on the penetration or Reyes is doubled at the post. Salangsang, by the way, hit 19 points in Rain or Shine’s 86-72 preseason win over the Giants. You won’t expect too many plays set up for Isip or Andaya but they’ll score on put-backs if no one puts a body on them.

More than anything else, the Painters must believe their time to win has come. Norwood gives them that confidence. Now, it’s up to the team to stand up and be counted.