Bye George, it's almost over!

The English say “By George!” to express amazement, but for Americans including the 28 or so Filipino-Americans working at the White House, it will soon be “Bye, George!” with George W. Bush preparing to leave the White House on January 20, 2009. As early as summer, the Bushes have already started packing their things as they get ready to move to Crawford, Texas where George Bush is expected to retire.

We can almost imagine him whistling Frank Sinatra’s My Way as he looks back to a roller-coaster presidency that has been dubbed as probably one of the most unpopular ever. With indications that the US might go into a deep recession, critics are comparing Bush to Herbert Hoover whose presidency (1929-1933) was marred by the Great Depression that shook the US economy. Then as it is today, the housing industry collapsed, millions lost their jobs, incomes dropped and people could hardly afford to pay for health and other basic services. 

 Dubya’s highest moment came after 9-11, where he issued his famous challenge to his allies: “Either you’re with us or against us.” But soon after, things went downhill as the enormous toll of the war in Iraq disenchanted the American public. And now, this financial mess. With the US elections just two days away, chances are, it could boil down to the fact that “It’s the economy, stupid!” — the campaign slogan coined by Bill Clinton’s political strategist James Carville during the 1992 elections that Bush Sr. lost.

 To a certain extent, history may repeat itself — except that this time, it’s Republican candidate John McCain who might bear the brunt. No matter how much McCain tries, he just couldn’t shake off the connection with George Bush, especially with Obama repeating over and over again that Bush and McCain are twins who “share a common philosophy.”

 Obama’s mantra of “change” has fashioned him as the new John F. Kennedy — who is in fact his presidential hero. Even JFK’s only surviving child Caroline said the 47-year-old candidate inspires people “in the way (her) father made them hope.” In fact, a senior official during the time of Kennedy admitted being awestruck when he heard Obama speaking before a crowd, thinking “My God, that’s JFK all over again.”

And these comparisons are precisely the same reasons why Obama’s security has been intensified to make sure he doesn’t suffer the same fate as his hero. There have been three incidents involving potential assassination attempts against the Illinois senator, the latest of which involves two skinheads reportedly tasked with beheading blacks all across the US. Obama’s security detail is now double the usual number, and US Secret Service sources said they are keeping Obama’s campaign route a tightly-guarded secret until the very last minute, frequently changing his code name in case it is being monitored by potential assassins.

If Obama wins, the Secret Service will have its hands full because of potential death threats considering the deeply-rooted racist sentiments still harbored by many people no matter how much Americans deny it. There were instances where an Obama cardboard was hung up on a tree; the head of a dead animal was stuck with Obama campaign stickers; and an offensive billboard showed an Obama caricature wearing a turban. If he becomes the 44th president of the United States — and indications point toward this — he should be told about Chinese feng shui and cautioned that the number “4” in Chinese numerology is considered unlucky and sounds like “death” in Cantonese. If one were to believe this, then “44” could mean a double death threat.

With just two days to go, the race to the White House gets tighter with polls indicating the gap has narrowed with Obama getting 49 percent against McCain’s 47. While the black vote could help Obama in his quest for the presidency, some analysts believe the race is a fight between “Generation X” and “Generation Y” who could play key roles in the outcome. Some 44 million people between 19 to 29 will be casting their votes, with predictions that majority will go for Obama. But seniors — many of whom are rooting for the 72-year-old McCain — could also spell the difference considering the consistent high voter turnout from their group, unlike young voters who can be unreliable.

 There are also speculations of a “split result” — and it could go either way with one candidate winning the popular vote but losing in the Electoral College count — similar to what happened to Al Gore during the 2000 elections. The American system is different from ours. In the US, it’s the electoral votes that matter. A state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes depending on its size, and whoever wins the popular vote in that state gets the assigned number of electoral votes. If a split result happens again, it will be the fifth time in the history of the US where a candidate wins the popular vote but loses anyway. Just the same, most people believe Obama will win.

In the Philippines , nobody really knows the exact number of votes. Aside from having too many candidates, there are “magicians” who could conjure magic numbers and other hocus-pocus. Hopefully, the elections will be automated by 2010, minimizing these old election tricks.

Meantime, Americans in the Philippines will be celebrating democracy with the invitation of US Ambassador Kristie Kenney to the American community, some members of the media and friends to an election watch. Hopefully, we can celebrate in the same manner in 2010 — unless Charter Change comes into the picture. But whatever the outcome will be in November 4, it will definitely be “bye, George” soon for the 43rd president of the United States.