Talks between the US and Iran should be underway today in Islamabad. Few are holding their breath.
Crude oil prices did soften after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the war. But prices quickly bounced up again after the world realized what a fragile arrangement this is – and what the likelihood of renewed hostilities might be.
Thrice the Americans offered a 15-point plan as basis for negotiations. Thrice Iran rejected the proposal.
Tehran offered a 10-point agenda for negotiations. Washington roundly rejected Tehran’s proposal. Trump’s spokesman claimed the Iranian proposal went straight to the trash can.
On literally the 11th hour, with Trump frantically scrambling for an exit from the war he initiated, the White House accepted the Tehran agenda – as well as Pakistan’s role as peace broker. Within minutes, it became clear Trump did not fully understand what he had publicly accepted. He probably did not even read the document he declared a “workable” basis for negotiations.
Israel did not lose time attempting to undermine the ceasefire. Tel Aviv claimed the ceasefire did not include the battlefront at Lebanon. Israel launched a massive air strike against Beirut and Tyre. Trump seemed confused.
Pakistan declared the Lebanon front was included in the ceasefire. Tehran repeated the same. Only then did Trump agree to the coverage – even as he claimed Netanyahu was beyond his control. Iranian missiles continued to rain down on Israel and what remained of US bases in the Persian Gulf.
Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Iran maintained its grip, releasing a map for marine traffic to strictly observe to avoid mines. The rest of the world effectively affirmed Iran’s control of the vital strait. The Philippines did so when it negotiated with Tehran for safe passage of non-existent Philippine-flagged vessels.
Before agreeing to a ceasefire, Trump threatened to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. The threat scandalized every civilized nation on earth – although no one really believed Trump had the firepower to carry out his threat. The only thing the US accomplished in attacking Iran was extreme diplomatic isolation.
Trump keeps up his unbelievable bluster even as the world concludes he had completely lost this war. He threatens to hit Iran even harder if no peace agreement is forged. But the region’s geopolitics is quickly shifting under his feet.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar announced their territory will no longer be used in any future attack against Iran. Turkey and Egypt are trying to rebuild a Sunni axis in the face of Iran’s unstoppable rise in influence. Russia and North Korea declared they will attack Israel with nuclear weapons if Tel Aviv used nuclear weapons against Iran. Most of the European governments, along with the pope, denounced Israel’s murderous attack on Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Iran continues attacking US forces in Bahrain and Kuwait. This preempts any attempt to build a land invasion force against Iran. Missiles were fired against the Marine vessel transporting a force from Okinawa, forcing it to relocate further out in the Indian Ocean.
As ceasefire negotiations are due to start today, the hot summer months in the Middle East are coming in fast. The heat in the region is equivalent to the Russian winter that turned back the armies of Napoleon and Hitler. The US Army cannot mount anything in the Middle Eastern summer where temperature rises to 50 degrees and hastens equipment fatigue.
Trump may have the bluster. But he does not have the time. Neither does he have the political momentum to threaten Iran in any meaningful way.
With Trump making his madman noises in the background, the negotiations will probably stretch – further undermining his position. Meanwhile, the global economy bleeds.
The story is now being told: Netanyahu exploited Trump’s vanity by promising to make him a hero in the wake of an easy war. Both flawed political personalities are now among the most hated globally.
Even if the talks in Islamabad result in some cessation in the fighting, this insane war deeply scarred the global economy. Growth projections are now being rescaled downwards. It will take up to five years to restore the damaged gas facilities in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices will remain elevated because supply will remain restricted. The new toll Iran collects from tankers using the Strait of Hormuz will add to the cost factors. It will take at least six months for marine insurance to be restored for the supertankers hauling their precious commodity out of the Gulf.
Philippine government spokesmen proudly declare that we no longer hold the record for having the highest oil prices in the wake of war. A small rollback might even be possible next week. But the fact remains we still have supply problems. Our available stockpile will not take us beyond June.
Our reliance on imported foodstuff will be salient. We will likely deal with shortages by the time the rainy season begins. A ceiling has been imposed on the price of imported rice. Price controls, as we know, never produced abundant supply.
I recall a story, probably apocryphal, about an American general visiting Vietnam after retirement to converse with his former nemesis. After a long meal filled with reminiscing, the American officer told his Vietnamese counterpart: “Admit it, you never won a battle against us.”
The Vietnamese general replied: “That is not relevant.”