‘Marites warfare’

A foreign diplomat must be a naif to take the word of a middle-level military officer as the official stand of the national government.

And the diplomat is an even bigger naif to think that the middle-level military officer can speak on behalf of two Cabinet secretaries plus the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

But China is far from clueless in international diplomacy, so it must be fully aware that the chief of the military’s Western Command (Wescom) does not speak for the AFP, and certainly not for Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro or National Security Adviser Eduardo Año.

Whatever Wescom chief Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, now on leave and temporarily replaced, allegedly told Chinese diplomats by phone last January regarding national policy in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), it would be astonishing if Beijing took it seriously, since the guy is not authorized to talk on the issue.

Whether in the military or foreign affairs, the Wescom commander is an implementer, not maker of policy. National policy on Ayungin (Second Thomas Shoal) and the WPS is way above his pay grade.

But Chinese diplomats are surely astute enough to know this. Or else they are so desperate to report something positive to Beijing that they want to believe the Wescom chief can go against the pronouncements of his commander-in-chief, the President of the Republic.

President Marcos has been consistent in his policy on the WPS, speaking clearly about it both here and in his many foreign trips: Philippine sovereignty and maritime entitlements in the WPS have been defined in the 2016 arbitral ruling that also invalidated China’s “nine-dash-line” claim over nearly the entire South China Sea.

Some quarters suspect that Beijing is applying a divide-and-rule tack, spreading disinformation and sowing divisiveness in the Philippines to advance China’s strategic interests.

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The AFP has said Carlos’ purported phone conversation with the Chinese (complete with transcript) could be a “deepfake,” and accused China of resorting to “Marites warfare” – meaning it is weaponizing gossip to create distractions and sow confusion about its aggression in the South China Sea.

If authentic, that transcript of an alleged phone conversation during which Carlos supposedly expressed support (with Teodoro and Año also purportedly sharing the same view) for China’s proposed “new model” for conduct in the WPS and in Ayungin in particular, can be taken as proof that the Chinese embassy records communication with Philippine officials.

It’s unlikely that there was any disembodied voice prompt on the phone prior to the start of the supposed conversation, informing Carlos that it would be recorded to ensure the accuracy of the messaging.

Philippine officials – especially ranking military officers – would have to be stupid not to even suspect that the Chinese might be recording phone conversations.

Everything is recorded these days, whether deliberately or as a matter of routine through surveillance equipment. I’m betting there is a Chinese recording of Rodrigo Duterte’s chat with Xi Jinping during which they forged that so-called gentleman’s agreement condemning the BRP Sierra Madre to rot away in Ayungin. Xi was meeting with the president of the Philippines; why wouldn’t it be recorded?

Philippine lawmakers who are making noises about a congressional probe of the gentleman’s agreement should just request the Chinese government for a copy of its recording of that meeting during which the deal was forged.

No one should find it surprising that the Chinese embassy recorded a conversation with the commander of Wescom. I would be surprised if they didn’t.

Carlos’ going on leave, along with the conflicting reasons given by the AFP for it, give the impression that the phone conversation and the transcript are authentic.

So the phone conversation was tapped by the Chinese. Without a court order, this is illegal under Philippine laws. Teodoro, a lawyer, said this is ground for expulsion of Chinese embassy officials behind the wiretap.

It’s intriguing (although not surprising for the Chinese) that while the Wescom chief was identified in the transcript, the Chinese diplomat to whom Carlos appears to have opened his big mouth has remained unnamed.

This should serve as a warning to all Philippine officials about their interactions with the Chinese. Recording conversations with officials of foreign governments must have now become routine for China.

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Duterte himself has provided details of what he agreed to (or at least the details he can still remember) about his deal with Xi. Duterte refuses to describe it as a gentleman’s agreement, although it looks like he simply doesn’t know what the phrase means.

As Duterte himself describes the deal, only Philippine resupply missions to the troops stationed on the Sierra Madre for food, water and other basic necessities would be allowed by the Chinese.

For any other activities, a “status quo” would be maintained – this much Duterte remembers as part of the deal. Repairs on the rusty ship would not be allowed. This effectively condemns the Philippine Navy ship grounded in Ayungin to deteriorate and eventually vanish into the sea.

Why would a Philippine president agree to a deal that acknowledges a need for Chinese permission to repair and maintain a Navy ship within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone?

China, if it releases any recording of the so-called gentleman’s agreement among two non-gentlemen, might provide more details about what Duterte promised Xi exactly.

But in this country where surveys consistently show the level of public trust for China hovering around zero, this could stoke accusations of treason hurled against the Dutertes.

If Beijing wants to install another China-friendly person in power in 2028, it wouldn’t do anything that would harm Rodrigo Duterte.

Treason is a wartime offense, but there are arguments that China is already engaged in hybrid warfare against those threatening its strategic interests.

At this point, as described by the AFP, it involves Marites warfare.