Towards a united Southeast Asia

I sense that recent events in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) are leading to a real crisis. The Philippine government has announced that there is a serious possibility that there will be joint patrols involving American and Filipino naval vessels in the area. In the past, whenever naval vessels pass through this territory, Chinese warships have always challenged their passage. American forces have always ignored these challenges. However, Filipino naval vessels have so far been forced to buck down due to the superiority of these Chinese maritime vessels.

Imagine a scenario where a combined Filipino and American task force is challenged by Chinese forces. The American forces will definitely not buck down but, the Filipino forces will now have the capability to stand up to these external threats.

There will be two main questions regarding this issue. The first is where exactly will these joint patrols be held? It will be difficult for these forces to avoid potential conflicts since China has illegally claimed almost the entire South Chinese Sea (SCS) as part of their territory. Therefore, any attempt to transverse this claimed territory will be considered by China as illegal.

The next question is what will happen in the event that China challenges these joint patrols on the high seas.

The reason that there is no clear picture of what could happen is the unfortunate fact that there is still no Code of Conduct for the SCS. the Philippines has been pressing for this; the Philippines has been pressing for this but China has refused to even initiate a discussion.

This is a scenario that could lead to an accidental war.

The question is whether there is a possibility of these events leading to an actual conflict. It may seem unimaginable at this stage. However, it is wise to remember that only a year ago, people could not imagine a violent war in Ukraine.

At this point, it can also be said that the Philippines has run out of options on how to defend its territorial sovereignty. China has become a major superpower and is using its superior might to bully its neighboring countries that are too weak to put up a meaningful defense.

A possible alternative to an alliance with another superpower like the United States was for the countries of Southeast Asia to band together for a common front to defend itself against the imperialist aggression of China. This was the rationale for the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (or NATO) which was constituted to defend the countries of Western Europe against Russian aggression. There are still a few countries in NATO like Hungary and Turkey which remain sympathetic to Russia. However, the overwhelming majority of the nations of Europe have banded together to support Ukraine in its fight against its invasion by Russia.

The ASEAN countries have so far not reached the level of unity as the European Union (EU). There may be a number of reasons for this. One reason is geography. The EU is made up of a single continuous land mass while the Southeast Asian countries are divided by bodies of water. Geography is an important determinant for how groups of nations can behave. The United Kingdom (UK) which is separated from the European mainland has left the EU. It considers itself as not really an integral part of Europe. It is not a coincidence that the UK is separated from the European mainland by two bodies of water, the English Channel and the North Sea.

In Southeast Asia, the nations are divided by not only by bodies of water but two of its main countries, the Philippines and Indonesia, are actually archipelagos. The European countries also basically have similar culture and common history in terms of religion. All the European countries are Christian.

In Southeast Asia, there are four main religious groups – Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, atheist. These are four radically different religious beliefs.

In Europe, the Russian threat was actually a unifying force. In Southeast Asia, the aggression and expansionism of China may yet become a unifying force.

The United States is a willing partner of Europe because the overwhelming majority of Americans are actually descendants of European immigrants, therefore sharing the same cultural and religious background. This is not true of Southeast Asia. Clearly, one of the principal obstacles to full unity in Southeast Asia is the factor of geography.

The most realistic possibility of some sort of unifying action will be those coming from countries that border the SCS and therefore face the same threat of Chinese territorial ambition. These countries are Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. Hopefully, these five countries can form the nucleus of a united Southeast Asia.

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