The future of Xi Jinping

China continues to be the most important external force influencing the Philippines’ domestic politics and its foreign policy.  Even our international alliances are dictated, to a large extent, by our relationship with China. In the last administration there was a serious attempt by the Philippine government to establish a cordial and friendly relationship with this Asian superpower. For a while, there was hope that this new relationship would result in massive investments and foreign aid. It was also expected that this new policy would result in the settlement of the disputes regarding the Philippine territories in the West Philippine Sea.

At that time, the president even said jokingly that this country should become a province of China. After six years, the hopes and expectations did not come true. The investments and aid did not materialize in the expected numbers. The territorial disputes were not settled. China refused a Code of Conduct and started forbidding Filipino fishermen to exercise their livelihood in Philippine territory.

Even worse, China transformed the reefs inside the sovereign territory of the Philippines into military and naval bases. In the event of an invasion of Taiwan by China, these bases would be utilized. This would then drag the Philippines into a war, whether we like it or not.

The new government has now gone into an opposite direction in its foreign policy. It is seeking out alliances with nations whose foreign policy objectives are to contest China’s expansionist ambitions. These countries include United States, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Vietnam and Taiwan.

This alliance is not necessarily based on friendship or love for each other. It is an alliance born out of a common need and a common desire to seek protection against Chinese aggression.

In terms of international geopolitics, it is therefore important for us to become more knowledgeable about the political decision-making in China.

Among the many readings and books that I have come across, one of the most interesting and informative is an essay written by Cai Xia, who was a professor at the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party from 1998 to 2012. The article is entitled “The Weakness of Xi Jinping: How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future.”

At the 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party last year, Xi was elected to an unprecedented third five-year term. This will make him the longest serving Chinese ruler in modern times since the era of Mao Zedong. He has also discarded China’s tradition in the post-Mao era of collective rule and has started a personality cult reminiscent of the Mao period.

One of Xi’s claims is that he was responsible for Chinese prosperity and its huge strides in reducing poverty. He has also claimed that he has raised his country’s international prestige to new heights. Until recently, these claims were accepted by the general population. However, these claims have become contested as China is undergoing economic troubles.

The real author of the China’s prosperity was Deng Xiaoping and the economic reforms he introduced. It is also credited to his immediate successors like Hu Jintao.

Recently, China has begun to suffer an economic slowdown due to a large degree to Xi’s reversal of these economic reforms and his seeming decision to go back to a more centralized economy in the old communist model. The centralization of decision-making has become more and more centered on one person, Xi Jinping. In fact, there are now many observations that Xi aspires to be the next Mao.

This type of one-man rule is acceptable to people if the result is increased prosperity. On the other hand, China’s tradition of collective rule in the post-Mao era and the creation of a personality cult that used to surround Mao will cause resentment and possible uprising if the economy begins to suffer. This seems to be the result of Xi’s reversal of economic reforms and his inept response to the Covid-19 pandemic which has shattered his image as a hero of everyday folks.

This was evident when there was a series of unforeseen and spontaneous street demonstrations in Shanghai and other major urban centers against the continuance of the severe lockdowns. Xi was forced to give up his Covid-19 lockdown policy. However, in the future, the expectation is that Xi will not give up his personal desire to maintain his one-man rule.

According to Cai Xia: “Emboldened by the unprecedented additional term, Xi will likely tighten his grip even further domestically and raise his ambitions internationally… China may experience a vicious cycle in which Xi reacts to the perceived sense of threat by taking ever bolder actions that generate even more pushback. Trapped in an echo chamber and desperately seeking redemption, he may even do something catastrophically ill-advised, such as attack Taiwan. Xi may well ruin something China has earned over the course of four decades: a reputation for steady, competent leadership.  In fact, he already has.”

In China, historically it takes more than sheer force and intimidation to stay in power. Mao and Deng earned their authority through accomplishments. Mao liberated China from the nationalists; Deng opened up China and unleashed an economic boom. Xi has no triumph of similar magnitude. The elites and the masses could abandon Xi, leading to his personal downfall if he experiences a major humiliation like a defeat in a war. As Cai Xi wrote:  “Emperors are not always forever.”

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