YOYO

Remember the early days of the pandemic, when Metro Manila and then the entire Luzon were placed under full lockdown as COVID cases surged from the original two, imported direct from China’s Wuhan City, to about 100?

In those first days of the previous administration’s zero-COVID policy, borrowed from Uncle Xi’s playbook, with no vaccine or treatment available, everyone was restricted at home, many in a state of YOYO: you’re on your own.

About a week before the lockdown in March 2020, there was panic-buying, with people stocking up on groceries and mountains of toilet paper.

The underprivileged, unfortunately, could only panic. There were also those who didn’t believe the government would lock down Metro Manila at that point, and therefore saw panic buying as silly overreaction.

For those who didn’t or couldn’t afford to hoard supplies, what were the items that were needed most when the lockdown started?

Those are the items that you might want to always have in hand, in volumes good for at least three days, if you want constant preparedness for the so-called Big One. This is the advice of safety expert Martin Aguda, who faced us Wednesday night on One News’ “The Chiefs.”

The magnitude-7 earthquake that rocked Northern Luzon last Wednesday morning has revived concerns about the Big One – the West Valley Fault waking from four centuries of sleep with an earthquake of at least 7.2 magnitude ripping through sections of Bulacan and across Metro Manila and on to parts of CALABARZON.

Concern was heightened by the fact that the earthquake occurred just over a week after the 22nd anniversary of the magnitude 7.8 quake that killed at least 1,621 people in Luzon on July 16, 1990.

In the chaotic aftermath of the apocalyptic Big One that experts have been warning about, Aguda says we should expect to be in a YOYO state for at least 72 hours.

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Previous earthquake preparedness programs in Metro Manila have included tips on putting together an evacuation pack or “go-bag” for every member of the household, which contains a flashlight, first aid kit with basic medicine and vitamins, whistle, small bottled water, personal hygiene items and perhaps a portable battery charger for handheld devices.

These days, the go-bags have been forgotten, but the regular holding of “drop, cover and hold” earthquake drills has endured.

Last Wednesday’s powerful quake toppled structures in Northern Luzon, caused damage in the Vigan Heritage Site and triggered landslides that blocked Kennon Road and isolated parts of the Cordilleras.

But the National Capital Region, where the quake was felt in varying intensities, was largely spared from structural damage. In our neck of the woods in the NCR, no member of my household felt it, just as no one felt the 1990 killer quake. We’ve been told that it’s probably due to the quality of the soil foundation in our community, since people in other parts of our city reported feeling the temblor.

Aguda suggests that where possible, “survival communities” can be organized for a more efficient and coordinated response to a powerful earthquake.

As in the past, worries about the Big One simmered down yesterday. There were jokes that worrywarts have been watching too many movies. After all, seismologists have been warning for decades now about the magnitude-8 Big One expected along California’s San Andreas Fault. And so far, the only cataclysmic killer quakes we have seen, destroying the iconic Golden Gate Bridge and the steep streets of San Francisco, are those made in Hollywood.

Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, is standing firm on the warning about the West Valley Fault being ripe for the Big One. And Phivolcs officials and disaster resilience experts stress that it’s better to be prepared than sorry.

In 2004, Phivolcs together with the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority presented a study, which projected that in case the Big One struck, around 34,000 people would die in the NCR, mostly from collapsed structures (particularly flimsy houses) and others from widespread fires.

Since that study, which painted a grim scenario arising from lack of preparedness, Solidum told The Chiefs that earthquake structural resilience has improved in the NCR. But he said there is still room for better preparedness in terms of reducing the devastating impact of earthquakes, and in actual response followed by recovery efforts.

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Japan, which has been ravaged by some of the most powerful earthquakes (with consequent conflagrations), volcanic eruptions and tsunamis, has an enviable disaster preparedness, response and mitigation program that is inculcated in its citizens beginning in grade school.

Disaster preparedness is made interesting through interactive shows and museums. Japan has earthquake simulators for different magnitudes and intensities, and simulations of what happens when someone is trapped at home in a powerful quake, with instructions on the safest responses. Visiting the facilities some years ago, I found it a thoroughly memorable and fun way to learn about earthquake preparedness, and I’m sure the experience has the same effect on Japan’s school children.

Our country of course lacks the enormous resources of Japan for such facilities. But other mitigation measures are doable, such as the way the Japanese fortify their bridges and other structures against earthquakes and torrential flooding.

They also have such a well-organized system of evacuation in urban centers, with street signs directing people to the spots where they can get drinking water, food, first aid and emergency telecommunications access. It’s not entirely YOYO for them in the first 72 hours of an earthquake.

In our case, as we are seeing in the quake-hit areas of Northern Luzon, our evacuation facilities are woefully inadequate.

Before last Wednesday’s earthquake recedes from memory and we lapse back to complacency, let’s hope earthquake preparedness response measures will get a significant boost.