Reconstituting

An old Russian-speaking man was interviewed while poking through rubble in his bombed out Ukrainian city. What he said rang with so much truth: We will never trust the Russians again for centuries to come.

Vladimir Putin’s senseless invasion of Ukraine shredded whatever sense of fraternity there might have been between the two countries. The two Slavic peoples share so much culture and history between them. Kyiv was the womb of modern Russia. Millions of Ukrainians were killed fighting for the Soviet Union during World War II. They were brothers.

The Russian invasion, with all the brutality brought by the shelling of Ukraine’s cities, struck the Ukrainians (including those who spoke Russian as their native tongue) as absolute treachery. “They are attacking civilians, not the army,” wailed a dazed Ukrainian crossing over to Poland.

In whatever peace talks happen from hereon, if they ever happen at all, will see Ukraine seeking security guarantees against a repeat of this murderous invasion. The other countries on Russia’s periphery – the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Hungary and Moldova – will want a certain level of western military forces on their soil as a hedge against Russian expansionism.

The spectacle of a Russian expeditionary force attempting to annex Ukraine will certainly lead to a build-up in military spending among the NATO countries. A Russian invasion is no longer merely speculative. It has happened. The western military alliance found, in recent events, a reaffirmation of its existence.

Now there is speculation that a peace-loving country like Japan might consider acquiring nuclear arms. The Northeast Asian country is on the frontline against Russia and China, both nuclear powers.

As global economic and financial sanctions take their toll on the Russian economy, China will have to make a vital strategic decision. Will the Asian economic superpower be inclined to nurse Russia (a 20th century economy ruled by a despot) on its lap in the coming years?

International isolation condemns Russia to a stagnant economy reliant only on its mineral and agricultural exports to subsist. From Beijing’s point of view, this particular ally could become baggage rather than booster for its superpower ambitions.

The pandemic tore apart numerous value- and supply-chains over the past two years. The invasion of Ukraine magnifies those disruptions. It is time for the global economy (and international order) to be reconstituted.

Europe is certainly rethinking its energy future. The invasion of Ukraine brought to the forefront Western European dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal. There is now a consensus among the European capitals to rapidly reduce energy dependence on an old power seemingly destined to be captive to despotism.

Putin must have bet that the European powers will be stymied by their energy dependence on Russia. They will squabble among themselves in the face of aggressive Russian moves. They will be hesitant to condemn an invasion of a sovereign country that is at the doorstep of membership in the EU – and maybe NATO.

Putin bet wrong. The European Union put values first, accepted the costs of condemning Russian action as well as the added cost of imposing sanctions.

Energy experts are now forecasting an even more rapid transition towards renewables in the wake of the war in Ukraine. When oil was the dominant fuel, there emerged “petro-states.” These are countries that were powerful because they controlled petroleum supplies.

Now they are talking about “electro-states.” These are countries that are able to export power from renewable energy sources.

Among those with the greatest potential to become an “electro-state” is Morocco. The desert country could generate large amounts of energy from solar and wind sources. The power can then be sold, through cables, to Europe.

The Russian misadventure in Ukraine will be radically altering the energy map in the coming years. Oil, gas and coal are 20th century vintage sources of energy. Reliance on them not only aggravates global warming. Renewable energy will sap Russia’s power in the coming period.

Ukraine and Russia together account for a substantial portion of global wheat supply. Ukraine’s agriculture is probably gone for the year. This will cause shortages in the Middle East and Africa. In response, these nations will rethink their strategic food supply sources away from higher risk countries.

Wheat shortages will reshape dietary patterns in the most affected countries in the coming months. Suddenly, wheat supply has become unreliable because of Putin’s actions against Ukraine.

Our Southeast Asian neighborhood is not exempt from the Ukraine fallout. Most evidently, we suffer the consequences of higher fuel costs. This will push up inflation everywhere. Oil supply could be a problem if this conflict drags on.

In his latest insane outburst, Putin demanded that rubles be paid for Russia’s commodity exports. It is obviously an effort to shore up the exchange value of Russia’s currency. But no sane country holds rubles in their international reserves. Demanding rubles for oil will only aggravate the supply problem.

We have not seen the end of Putin’s megalomaniac policies. But the more erratic he becomes, the more his economy suffers.

Today, no sane investor would sink large sums of money in Russia. It was bad enough that the oligarchs bent the rules of the market to suit their greed. Now, the erratic policies announced off the cuff by a confused despot add to the aggravation.

In sum, all the strategic adjustments nations will have to make to cope with a changed international condition will only deepen Russia’s isolation. This poor nation will impoverish generations of its people for tolerating a man like Putin.