Que sera 2021

Reviewing the predictions of fortune tellers at this time last year, including feng shui, card readers, and “maghuhulas”, not one predicted the COVID-19 virus and the ensuing pandemic which had disastrous effects on the economy and society in 2020. Not one also predicted the collapse of the stock market in April and the recovery in November, which would have made investors a windfall profit of four times the amount invested. There were general predictions of earthquakes, floods, and other calamities, but given the experiences and the scientific predisposition of our planet, these were no-brainer predictions. Even Nostradamus didn’t predict this 2020 pandemic, and Bill Gates forecast of a pandemic didn’t mention a specific year. The alleged predictions in two books which were written 10 years earlier were edited/fictionalized projections. So, I usually don’t take seriously fortune teller predictions of specific events. At best, we can appreciate certain projections of trends based on accumulated previous data which are analyzed for probable recurrence or computable consequences.

Predictions or projections of future events, are analysis and distillations of previous events/happenings and trends which are analyzed by our brains or by computers to make probability assessments of its recurrence and its consequences. It uses both inductive and deductive reasoning. If events or similar events happen at certain frequencies, a probability percentage may be inferred/assigned in the range of 70% to 90%. The rules of logic on deduction on consequences, given the premises, will then give the probability of the event happening. There is no 100% probability of the event happening because the happening of the events in the past doesn’t guarantee it will happen in the future. This is called the “random walk hypothesis”, which leads to what some people call the “black swan” event. Intuition, insights, and the best predictions of fortune tellers and seers are really their better mind analytics/distillation of the information available to them. The advent of powerful computers and data analytic programs would equal or better some of the predictions of most fortunetellers.

Available information on the pandemic on the infection/death rates, the availability of vaccines and the economic recovery shows a trend of a better 2021 in both the public healthcare and the economy. The continuing advances in science and technology also points to science-based solutions to many of the world’s problems. In politics, the decline of populism, the struggles of democracy, geo-political shifts, and expansionism are well displayed and trending. In ecology, environmental degradation, global warming and shift to renewable energy are dominant issues that are being addressed. With all these available data crunched by gifted minds and supercomputers, it’s possible to make reasonable projections/predictions for 2021.

There is a 70% probability that the world economy (GDP) will grow by 4% in 2021, including the Philippine economy. There is an 80% probability that the Philippines GDP will grow by 7% in 2022. There is a 60% probability of a cold war will arise out of the South China sea conflict. There is an 80% probability that oil prices will stay below $50/barrel. There is a 70% probability that democratic freedom and liberty will continue to progress in many parts of the world. There is a 60% probability that environmental degradation will slow down in 2021. There is a 70% probability that a number of political leaders of the world and in the Philippines will move to kingdom come, and this is because available data shows that a large number of them are over 75 years old and ailing, and recent statistics show that many have succumbed to illnesses in the last 12 months. Except for miracles, predictions are mostly data analytics.