The crossroads of Alan Peter Cayetano
The way I look at the political drama in the House, Cayetano really wants to be in the Palace by 2022. That was the main reason why he wanted to stay as speaker. His Plan A was to run for president and his Plan B was to be Mayor Inday's vice presidential bet in 2022. But his plans were derailed by Lord Alan Velasco. The question now is where to go from here?
First of all, he can’t win without the help of the gods of Mount Olympus. The number one god is President Duterte, who is Zeus and Apollo. The blessing of the president is equivalent to at least five to eight million votes from Classes C, D, and E. Then, the lesser gods are Crown Prince Bongbong and Princess Imee of the Solid North, with sultans Rody Fariñas and Chavit Singson. Then Queen GMA of the vote-rich Central Plains. If Cayetano doesn’t have their support, he should accept his destiny in the footnotes of history.
Cayetano should thus ask for pardon from Duterte for his overt and covert acts of defying the Blood Compact of 1521, which was brokered by no less than Duterte himself. If you know the old mayor of Davao, you should never, ever attempt to violate your palabra de honor, or else he will “kill” you politically. Look, what happened to Bebot Alvarez. He was the undisputed speaker of the House. But Bebot fought banana magnate Tony Boy Floirendo, top financial supporter of Duterte. Bebot may not even win another term if Mayor Inday unleashes her forces in Tagum and Davao del Norte.
So, Cayetano should mend his fences with the Dutertes, and not create trouble in the House. His old minions like Mike Defensor, Jonathan Alvarado-Sy, L-Ray Villafuerte, and Boyet Gonzales will soon distance themselves from him. And very soon, he will be alone, nursing his wounds and loneliness. For, that is how the cookie crumbles. Success has many fathers. Failure is an orphan. He will be abandoned by the people he favored and gave much concession to. And such underlings will cozy up to the new flavor of the House, Velasco.
Velasco, in his characteristic friendliness, offered the position of Deputy Speaker to Cayetano. That’s a nice political move. If Cayetano rejects it, he’s a sour loser. If he accepts it, he is virtually eating his words because he relentlessly and viciously attacked Velasco without mercy, insulted him and called him lazy, unqualified, incompetent, and not ready to become speaker of the House. And so, Lord Alan Jay played his cards well, when he made that offer. It was a no-win situation for Alan Peter. And the Sultan of Taguig is now pushed to the walls, and to a corner of no retreat, no more surrender, biting his nails and gnashing his teeth, in sorrows and regrets.
If I were Allan Peter, I shall withdraw like Bebot Alvarez, and with silent dignity, work hard in his small second district of Taguig, synergize with his wife Lani, also a member of Congress representing the first district, and his brother Lino, the mayor of their family kingdom, and support his elder sister Pia in the Senate. It is just one step backward. Who knows, it may become two steps forward if he plays his cards well. I have my serious doubts, though. His ultimate destiny may be like that of Doy Laurel, Teofisto Guingona, and Homobono Adaza. In the footnotes of history.
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