Prolonged

Let’s not kid ourselves. This dreadful pandemic is not about to end very soon.

There will be successes and there will be failures. There will be waves of infections and recurrence. There will be heroes and there will be heels. 

The fact is: we do not really have a timeline to work with. We have to improvise by the day. We are up against a wily virus with a fantastic rate of infection. 

All citizens need to find ways to support our medical frontlines. Some of our best doctors have succumbed to this plague. If our health system caves in, we have no second line of defense against the virus.

Many of us heaved a sigh of relief as we reached the midpoint of the month-long enhanced community quarantine. This episode of impossible restrictions on movement has given new meaning to the phrase “staying power.”

We relished in the thought that in just two weeks from now, the restrictions will be lifted and we can go back to “normal” – whatever that might mean given the circumstances. Given the facts on the ground, it seems we cannot simply snap back to pre-quarantine life.

For one, we do not really know the extent of infections. We are now doing more tests. But nothing indicates we have “flattened the curve.” 

The increased testing shows a very high rate of positives. This is because we have, of course, prioritized those with serious symptoms of infection. With the scarcity of test kits, we cannot waste them on those showing no symptoms of infection. 

We aspire to achieve the excellent rate of testing recorded by South Korea. Extensive testing of the population allowed that country to achieve a 3:97 ratio of positives to negatives. It will take us some more time to get there.

Unfortunately, the most reliable test is also the most cumbersome. A virus is a molecule. We need a molecular laboratory to track it based on its genome identity. 

There are “quick tests” that look at the body’s production of antibodies. While convenient, they are not accurate. The body could be producing antibodies for a wide range of infections.  

Earlier in this emergency, some leftist groups tried to score political points by denouncing the “fascist” community quarantine that was enforced and demanded “massive testing.” They were trying to sell a political opiate. If we did not lock down and instead waited for test kits, the virus would have spread uncontrollably and brought down our health system.

Nor could we have stockpiled test kits before the epidemic. The test kits are specifically for the new type of virus that spread. They could only be developed after we discovered the DNA sequence of this “novel” coronavirus. 

In the idleness of a lockdown, it is easy to complain about the lack of a “comprehensive plan” to deal with the epidemic – as opposition politicians do. That is another piece of political deception. There could be no plan that could be “comprehensive” enough to please them. We are all improvising as we battle this unprecedented existential challenge.

 The lockdown would be more bearable if politicians did not exploit the circumstances for partisan effect. Some of the senators account for the most volume of chatter, but only Manny Pacquiao has managed to source urgently needed donations.

In two weeks, the “enhanced community quarantine” will likely be modified but not entirely lifted. What its exact form should be the subject of intense discussion by the IATF over the next few days.

The business community is asking for the factories to be reopened. That, of course, cannot be done without opening up everything: mass transport, food services and retail. 

There are suggestions that only the communities with infected people be isolated under extreme quarantine measures. We know from the experience elsewhere that localized quarantines do not work. The virus soon spreads beyond the defined perimeters.

There is at least one senior official recommending that possibly infected persons be forcibly restricted to new facilities prepared for that purpose. This is why the PICC and the Rizal Memorial Sports Complex are considered for repurposing. They will look like concentration camps where hundreds are interned.

But the danger here is that they could become hatcheries for fostering infestation much like those cruise ships where infections spread rapidly. Right now, a US aircraft carrier is marooned in Guam with scores of its sailors infected. No evacuation of its crew, numbering in the thousands, has begun.

We have had some success with using the New Clark City athletes’ quarters as a facility for keeping possibly infected repatriates for quarantine. The other day, we received over 800 crewmembers from stricken cruise ships from around the world. That facility is busting at the seams.

Various local governments have been working frantically the past few days preparing buildings to either provide additional bed spaces for hospitals or serve as confinement centers for persons awaiting the result of their tests. We might not have enough medical personnel to staff them, however.

Whatever we want to do about containing the epidemic beyond April 14 will depend on the facts on the ground, the realistic capacity of our health system and the word of our experts. No one person can dictate the shape of policy by that date.

Neither should the wishful thinking of some groups shape policy in this regard. Experts are telling us the epidemic has yet to peak and this could happen sometime in June.

The agony will be prolonged and no choice will be easy.