Recession

This year is gone.

There is near unanimity among economic forecasters that the global economy is headed for a recession. If things turn worse, we could even fall into a full-fledged depression.

In the face of a pandemic, whole countries were forced into lockdown. With entire populations immobilized by quarantines, very little economic activity could happen. 

 Spooked by the rapid spread of the virus, stock markets across the globe crashed one after the other. Businesses are on standstill. Profit expectations have been thrown out of the window.

Given the nature of this emergency, governments have to make a stark choice between saving their people and saving their economies. In many instances, the choice is binary. 

We cannot shut down communities without shutting down commerce. Small businesses will take a beating. Day workers will see no income at all. 

In the US, the Treasury Secretary admitted that unemployment could reach 20 percent. That is a Depression-era number. 

There are radical ideas on the table. In the US, they are considering a plan to send $1,000 to every American adult to help them cope with the emergency – and also to prop up domestic demand. 

 In our case, government agencies are drawing up plans to provide food package deliveries to quarantined homes, especially in the poorer communities. That will be direly needed in the next few days as the toll of the lockdown begins to mount.

Dealing with the pandemic will cost governments. Our Finance officials are now exploring possible sources for the estimated $1 billion we need to fund our containment effort. That could just be an initial sum.

If the costs of fighting the virus spikes, our officials seem open to the possibility of using funds earmarked for other purposes. The infrastructure program could be impacted should things turn worse.

No one is talking about the 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent growth target anymore. If we are able to keep our heads above water and escape the expected contraction of the global economy, this will be good enough. 

The response of our largest conglomerates has been heartening. Mall owners announced they are suspending rentals for their tenants through this emergency.

San Miguel Corp. assures that its food subsidiaries are well stocked to provide consumer needs for  months. Ginebra San Miguel is shifting its production from gin to rubbing alcohol. San Miguel Foods has been delivering food packets to the frontlines.

Ayala Corp. set aside a P2.4 billion fund to keep its employees paid and to support the containment effort. SM has contributed P100 million to support our health system. 

We hope this crisis abates soon. Even if it does, life will never be the same again. Now we know this may not be the last viral outbreak humanity will have to try to outrun.

Frontliners

 Our health workers and security personnel form the vital frontline in this war against the virus. We rely on their heroism to carry on and avert a descent into chaos.

They are, imaginably, exhausted. But they have pushed beyond the call of duty keeping our health system running against all odds and helping keep our communities safe.

Each day that passes, ordinary citizens have found ways to reinforce the frontlines.

Small restaurants in the Sampaloc area have been preparing free hot meals for the health workers at nearby hospitals. The quarantine notwithstanding, ordinary people have prepared food and drinks for the troops manning the checkpoints.

There are volunteers everywhere. Car owners have offered to ferry health workers to get to their posts given the closure of our mass transport system. People will get the hang of helping out as the days pass.

There is a global shortage of testing kits. This is understandable because no one anticipated this pandemic.

UP scientists at the Genome Center are working around the clock to perfect the testing kits they have developed. This is a heroic effort. We are told the kits will be ready for use in a few days. That will help save many lives.

This is exactly what “serving the people” means. It is using hard scientific skills to provide what our people desperately need, not marching around like zombies mouthing tired old slogans.

We have received several thousand pieces personal protective equipment from Jack Ma, through Manny Pacquiao. This should relieve the pressing needs of our health workers for the time being. 

China is shipping more health equipment. In moments of dire need, all the help is profoundly appreciated. We will never forget.

Nor will anyone soon forget this extraordinary time in our lives.

This is exactly what risk analyst and theoretician of randomness Nassim Nicholas Taleb, described as a “black swan”: a phenomenon that no one could have imagined happening. This virus no one foresaw wreaks havoc in our lives, overturns the most powerful economies and renders the greatest armies useless. 

Before this epidemic, our homes are the last bastions. Every street is a battlefield. Every stranger we run into is a potential assassin. 

Every citizen has a role to play. Each one must adhere to medical advice to break the chain of contamination. By simply adhering to the quarantine measures, we are doing something heroic.

To be sure, the quarantine measures in place are imperfect. It is a hasty response to a rapidly spreading virus. No one is an expert in an emergency like this one.

This is not the time for nitpicking, however. This is a time for rallying together and building the solidarity indispensable to surviving this challenge.