Multi-industry crisis

If there’s a song that comes with a very practical lesson, one would be “The Gambler” made famous by Kenny Rogers the singer and not the chicken place. While it tells about the art of gambling, the song also tells us about being very aware of our circumstance, self control and the ability to know when to stay or go. Whether it’s the cards in your hand or the cards that life has dealt you, what’s important is:

“You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em

Know when to fold ‘em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you’re sittin’ at the table

There’ll be time enough for countin’

When the dealin’s done”

Half of the time, people don’t know if they have a good situation or not. One of my little known line of work is that of a Crisis Management Consultant and because of the sensitivity or nature of the engagements I cannot even mention who I work for or what their crisis is about. As they say, “If I tell you, I’ll have to kill you”. The only exemption to all that is a story I like to share which involved a global brand that was in a panic about radical changes in the business environment. We were all in a big conference room full of executives both foreign and local as well as associates from across the sea via teleconference. For at least an hour and a half, I heard and viewed reports, scenarios and presentations that reminded me of Chicken Little running around screaming that the sky was falling. Just listening to the “end of the business” scenarios simply made me hungry and impatient. Finally, the head honcho himself spoke up and said: I’ve heard everything I need to hear. Now I’d like to hear what Mr. Beltran has to say.

I stood up from the back row and replied:  From where I’m standing, you don’t have a crisis. So can we now have lunch? The fact that I was more interested in lunch than adding to the gravity of the presentation drew laughter and a couple of expats told me in the lunch line that it was the smartest thing they heard all morning. I suppose it was, considering all we heard about was the doom and gloom but not the determination if they had a problem or a real crisis in their hands because that defines what path or action was needed. Problems can be solved and controlled. A crisis can only be managed. In between all that is the world of how to avert a crisis.

I’m talking about Crisis Management today in relation to our problem with ASF or African Swine Fever, because we now have a Multi-Industry Crisis but no one is calling it out as a “Crisis”. So far the protocol or action on ASF is all about containment and control of what is labeled as an “Outbreak”. The Department of Agriculture’s actions against ASF are commendable but dealing with the disease does not deal with the multi-industry disaster it has now created. At this stage the impact of ASF is no longer just about the disease itself and pockets of backyard hog raisers losing their businesses and livelihood. ASF now threatens the business of big and small processed meats manufacturers who collectively employ thousands of pesos and generates billions of pesos that go into our economy. ASF has also negatively affected the growth and expansion plans of many feed mills and animal feeds manufacturers. Since January 2018, many national brands have invested billions of pesos on new and bigger plants in order to help the hog industry grow. But in the ASF reality, they have all scaled down or slowed down their operations while some are even seriously studying cut backs in feed production and related marketing expenses that all trickle down to dealers, customers and employees. From what I’ve heard, many industry players are realigning operations and shifting their focus on poultry and game fowl. This survival strategy is to be expected but the question is what about the thousands of employees who have long been assigned and dedicated to selling Hogs related products. Not everyone can be reassigned or retrained. Some will have to be laid off. Yes people in several industries are now wondering what their future will be in our ASF reality. The DA’s containment protocol or policy addresses serious concerns about ASF in backyard piggeries but has anyone done an impact assessment of ASF on market vendors, supermarkets, and retail outlets that sell both fresh cuts and processed meats? Then there is the impact of ASF on logistics, transport and handling challenges in the era of ASF? What is the government doing about the strong possibility of layoffs resulting from loss of sales and operational cutbacks?

At the moment, the government has left the ASF problem to the Department of Agriculture thinking that it’s an “Agri problem”. To continue any further with this mindset will spell disaster not only for the hog industry but also for many Filipino entrepreneurs, industries and our economy. The weakest link or chink in the armor of the Duterte administration is its continued failure to spread out safety nets before or during a crisis. The Duterte administration failed to put out the safety nets for the poorest of the poor affected by TRAIN 1 that caused painful inflation. Then they came out with the Rice tariffication law and again they failed to bring out the safety nets to help the Filipino farmers. Now, we have a multi-industry crisis resulting from the spread of ASF, Smuggling of tainted pork, fake news spread by interest groups, threats and intimidation from all sides affected by ASF and worst of all the threat of Jobs and investments lost because government leaders continue to treat the problem as a backyard babuyan problem and not the crisis that it is!

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