Risking it all in the name of the people

Imagine a crisis in which the Philippines was deeply divided over the issue of whether and how to leave an economic and political common market that has brought peace across much of the continent (just as Asean aims to be), even though doing so would mean the nation itself would collapse. Imagine that because the people of the Visayas were intent on remaining in the regional group and because the hard-won peace agreement in Mindanao were dependent on the lack of a border between Mindanao and the rest of the Philippines (it is) the integrity of the nation and peace itself were at risk. Imagine then, that ONLY the members of the ruling party chose a leader for the entire country that is determined to abandon the regional group with or without an agreement that might ease the transition.

This is the extraordinary catastrophe facing the people of the United Kingdom in an epic political struggle that’s just taken another twist with the election of a new Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is determined to deliver Brexit, the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union by October 31st, with or without a deal as he stated in his first appearance as PM in the House of Commons, the lower house of the legislature here.

But you wouldn’t think there was anything wrong if you were to take Johnson’s statement at face value. He declared that in 30 years time the nation would look back on this as “the beginning of a new golden age for the United Kingdom” with the abandonment of the European Union.

Lawmakers, known as Members of Parliament or MPs, then got their chance to question Johnson. The opposition leader responded that while nobody underestimates the UK, the UK is concerned that the PM overestimates himself. One welcomed him as “the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.” Another asked him how he would choose between leaving the EU or the break up of the UK.

That’s because the voters in Scotland voted against leaving the EU in the referendum in 2016, and the Scottish government is raising the possibility of a vote to break away from the United Kingdom.

Peace itself is at risk on the island of Ireland, where Northern Ireland is part of the UK, but the rest is the Republic of Ireland which is part of the EU. Up to now there has been an “open border” between the two territories because both belonged to the EU, and is a crucial factor in the agreement that brought peace to the island in 1998 after a brutal war in which more than 3500 people were killed.

But if the UK leaves the EU, Ireland and Northern Ireland would have different trade regimes, so it was agreed between the EU and the government of Boris Johnson’s predecessor that whatever happens as a result of Brexit there would not be any new physical checks at the border. Indeed, the EU insists that even if there were no deal encompassing all the aspects of relations there would be a “backstop” – meaning that even as a last resort there would still be a seamless border and close relations between the UK and the EU.

That’s far too close for those that support leaving the EU in Parliament, so they rejected the deal negotiated by former PM forcing her resignation and bringing the nightmare of the “no deal Brexit” several steps closer to reality. Boris Johnson, Brexit poster boy, has taken her place and decisively replaced her cabinet with politicians who he said had all committed to leaving the EU on or before 31 October, “no ifs, no buts,” and he underlined his pledge to remove the backstop.

As soon as he’d spoken, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said eliminating the backstop was “unacceptable.”

The EU Commission’s President, Jean-Claude Juncker, also underlined the EU’s position in a call with Mr Johnson, saying the withdrawal agreement negotiated between the bloc and Mrs May was “the best and only agreement possible” for Brexit. It’s estimated that Brexit has already cost the UK the equivalent of $82 billion.

The business of politics takes a summer break at this point but it will only be a brief respite. The country is far from ready for a no deal scenario. For example every component of every export will need to pass EU inspection and regulations, with the necessary documentation and licenses. Hundreds of thousands of trucks cross  both ways every week and there will be long lines at the new border once Brexit is achieved.

Johnson has said that the cost of leaving the EU will be “vanishingly inexpensive” but the respected UK Trade Policy Observatory has measured the impact across all of industry at a staggering $27 billion a year to compensate businesses, or more than half of England’s budget for schools.

As things stand, no one knows what is going to happen and the country is in a state of deep uncertainty and division over what it is and where it stands in the most fundamental sense. There are those who would see the UK’s predicament as a lesson in the limits of democracy and the wages of populism. Boris Johnson is the latest populist demagogue to join the ranks of Donald Trump in the US (who has welcomed Johnson as “Britain Trump”), Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and our own Rodrigo Duterte.

The winds of change have blown politics decisively to the right,  with very real consequences for ordinary people. Peacebuilders and humanitarians are grappling with the conflicts and say we are dealing with the highest levels of displacement on record as world leaders take more trenchant, belligerent positions.

What’s happening in the UK would have been unthinkable to those in the mainstream as recently as five years ago. That this can happen in a place where government institutions and democratic principles are as well-founded and strong as here, in an economy as prosperous as here, as integrated with the global economy as here, in my view demonstrates how fragile and precious the ideals of peace, freedom and justice are, and how they must be fought for with every thought and action by individuals, leaders and societies as a whole if they are ever to make a difference in our lives.