In the next few days, a colleague in our newsroom plans to buy sliced ham from Excelente, renowned maker of cooked Chinese hams in Quiapo, Manila.
He figures that with prices spiraling, and the Department of Trade and Industry itself warning of higher prices for Noche Buena fare, he may no longer be able to afford the delectable ham by the time Christmas rolls around. So he’s going to have an early Christmas ham indulgence.
As of yesterday, Excelente hams were retailing at P1,300 for their top-of-the-line salty Chinese bone-in, P1,200 for the sweetish boneless, and P1,160 for the scrap or sliced.
Another colleague noted that the price of the scrap ham is close to the price of Romaine lettuce, used among others in Chinese vegetable lumpia. This may be a good excuse to skip the veggies and pig out on pork this holiday season. Except with prices of most food items soaring to eye-watering heights, ordinary folks can’t afford to pig out on anything, before, during and after this holiday season.
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The week opened with the latest hefty fuel price increase, as world crude prices breached $83 per barrel. Since the start of the year, when the fuel excise tax took effect under the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law, pump prices in our country have doubled.
I’m no economist, but I shop regularly, in the wet markets, in the bargain centers of Divisoria and the supermarket chains. And I know that prices of basic goods and other items always go up when fuel prices increase. Importers, wholesalers, retailers and market stallholders say the same thing: when the cost of transportation goes up due to more expensive fuel, they pass it on to consumers.
Yet economic managers are still in denial about the impact on inflation of the fuel tax. And President Duterte is listening to them. He may listen even more following that Social Weather Stations survey for the third quarter, which showed his approval rating rebounding slightly. Even if the results clash with the steep drops, attributed to inflation, in his approval and trust ratings for the same quarter in the Pulse Asia poll.
It may just be a matter of time, however, before people begin blaming his administration for soaring prices and financial woes – especially if this Christmas season proves to be less than merry. Joyless holidays are bad news in an election year.
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For example, many overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) who will be going home to spend the Christmas holidays with their families will have to pay more for their plane fare. The fuel surcharge, approved by civil aviation authorities for local carriers due to the soaring cost of fuel, means hefty increases in the cost of air travel.
The dollar is stronger, but any increase in the value of OFWs’ foreign currency earnings will be offset by spiraling inflation in the Philippines, particularly in the prices of food, utilities and other basic items.
Because of imports, prices of galunggong (round scad), the so-called poor man’s fish, have gone down from a high of P240 per kilo a few weeks ago to P90 to P120, depending on the quality, in the wet markets. I don’t know if people are buying after that formalin scare, but the prices are down.
Imported onions are also flooding the market. Large, shiny, the red onions were selling for about P100 a kilo in the wet market the other day; the smaller local variety was priced at P80. Siling labuyo – bird’s eye chili – is now available at P700 per kilo, from a high of P1,000. The Bicolanos must be sighing with relief. Finger chilies, used for sinigang, can be bought at P4 for five pieces.
But carrots are at P90 to P100 for three medium-sized pieces. Lettuce? Broccoli? Don’t ask how much if you have a heart problem, the market vendor advises her suki or regular customer – and she’s only half-joking. Rice prices are still high. I don’t know if the prices of cup noodles and 3-in-1 coffee will ever return to pre-TRAIN levels.
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People will just have to endure the soaring fuel prices, because the TRAIN law provides that world crude prices must remain at $80 per barrel for three successive months before the fuel tax is automatically suspended. This guarantees no suspension of the fuel excise tax during the holidays.
Congress may amend the TRAIN law. But the House of Representatives has just passed TRAIN 2, so it can’t be expected to amend TRAIN 1 – unless prodded by Malacañang, or congressmen fear that public discontent might affect their election bids. And senators can’t amend a law, especially a tax measure, without the cooperation of the HOR.
People are hoping for an executive order during the congressional break, similar to the one issued for the implementation of the Reproductive Health Law while the Supreme Court and Food and Drug Administration were sitting on it. But the economic managers are sure to block the suspension of any TRAIN provision by executive action.
TRAIN also made electricity more expensive, so we can expect fewer Christmas lights this year.
If Christmas 2018 turns out to be cheerless, people will look for someone to blame. They’re unlikely to pin the blame on the oil exporters or the world market, or the Middle East policies of US President Donald Trump.
People will blame those closer to home, and the policy makers they know.