ASEAN summit without President Trump

The White House informed us that US president Donald Trump will not be attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Singapore this November, and will instead send vice president Mike Pence. 

As expected, there was some speculation on President Trump’s decision to skip the ASEAN summit because of domestic issues, but we were told that the US president will be traveling to Ireland in November before proceeding to Paris for the 100th anniversary commemoration of the armistice that ended World War I. 

The trip to Europe, in particular to Paris, is not surprising since President Trump and French president Emmanuel Macron got along quite well. In his speech during the recent French Ambassadors’ Conference, Macron said that continuing dialogue with Washington remains essential, and also echoed the call of Trump for Europe to be self-sufficient in its defense instead of relying solely on the US for its security.

The domestic political situation is the more critical issue for President Trump. The upcoming midterm elections on November 6 will be electing 35 senators, all the 435 members of the House of Representatives, 36 state governors as well as local legislative officials. The Republicans will want to maintain control of the federal government because a majority victory by the Democrats could severely limit the Trump administration’s ability to govern for the remainder of his first term. Of course, there is also talk that the Democrats – should they manage to wrest control of the House – would try to impeach President Trump. Every single Republican victory in the midterm polls will definitely matter. 

Whether ASEAN nations are disappointed or not at Trump’s decision to skip the leaders’ summit in Singapore, the significance of the event will not be diminished as there are very important issues that must be tackled, among them the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC). ASEAN foreign ministers and their Chinese counterpart previously agreed on a single draft negotiating text (SDNT) to serve as the basis for adopting a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

While the COC is not meant to resolve the maritime disputes, it is aimed at managing disputes through direct negotiations or arbitration among claimants in order to avoid conflict. The SDNT echoes the text in the Framework Code of Conduct that it is “not an instrument to settle territorial disputes or maritime delimitation issues.”

Experts say a dispute settlement mechanism will be needed for the COC to be effective as disagreements over interpretation and application are sure to arise. Specific and detailed provisions must also be outlined regarding utilization of natural resources including gas and oil in the disputed maritime territories.

Then there is the matter of economic integration in light of projections that by 2030, ASEAN will become the world’s fourth largest economy. In his speech during the opening of the 50th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong cited ASEAN’s educated and young workforce as well as its emerging middle class, noting that economic integration and cooperation has become a key pillar that underpinned the regional bloc’s success and cohesion over the years.

Lee also said that an open and economically integrated ASEAN will be more attractive to other economies, calling on leaders to fully implement the ASEAN Economic Continuity Blueprint 2025 to enable businesses to “operate more seamlessly across the region and make companies and economies more competitive globally.”

As one of the founding countries of ASEAN, the Philippines through President Rodrigo Duterte has been intensely trying to make the country an attractive investment destination as well as globally competitive. The president’s historic official visits to Israel and Jordan – the first time a Philippine president visited these countries – underscores the importance of reaching out to nations that are supportive of us and are also US allies at the same time.

The Philippines and Jordan signed five cooperation agreements on defense, maritime cooperation, political consultation, labor and investment. Jordan also donated two Cobra attack helicopters to the Philippines, which will be turned over in July next year after a nine-month training for Filipino pilots.

During President Duterte’s visit to Israel, 21 business agreements valued at $82.9 million were inked between private companies. Of these, six were security-related, covering the areas of cybersecurity, intelligence data mining, technology transfer and the development of various intelligence and military products.

A deal between Armscor and EMTAN was also signed. Armscor is a Philippine company which is the oldest and biggest arms and ammunitions manufacturer in the Philippines. Martin Tuason is the president and he is hopeful the technology transfer from EMTAN, an Israeli manufacturer of military weapons, will enable the Philippines to develop its own defense industry and manufacture firearms and ammunitions for our military and police with less dependence on other countries.

This came to the fore during a Senate hearing on the proposed creation of a Special Defense Economic Zone when a resource person revealed that our troops almost ran out of ammunition during the siege of Marawi City. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has been batting for the revival of the self-reliant defense posture (SRDP) program to support our internal security capability. 

We are currently preparing for the visit of DND Secretary Lorenzana in Washington, D.C. this September. I will accompany him for meetings with State Secretary Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary James Mattis and White House National Security Adviser John Bolton. Both President Duterte and President Trump want us to achieve the goal of making our Armed Forces strong and less dependent on US aid. These meetings will hopefully put that in the right perspective.

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