Population and development

In the month preceding, we discussed mostly that part of development (of countries or cities) that is physical in nature - that which relates to space, location, structure, and transportation infrastructure of cities. And we described this as both long-term in horizon and relatively rigid and unchanging in nature. Exemplified by physical framework plans, land use plans, and zoning ordinances, this physical domain of planning is one of the three - the other two being socio-economic planning and demographic and social planning.

Now we come to the most important one, … well, depends on one's perspective, because all three are important, but some people place more importance on one over the other two. Again, depending on how you look at it. But if we base the criteria on the presumption that man is the center of development, then the demographic and social angle should come out as the more important aspect of them all. This seems very obvious but is seldom that if we look at how people comment on the current state of development of the city or country where they live. A lot of people still place more importance on other, non-human issues.

Try to make a small survey on what people perceive as the prevailing problems in their locality. You will get a variety of complaints on almost anything and everything but I am willing to bet these would crop up - traffic jams, flooding, inadequacy of transport, lack of parking space, high cost of living, absence of bike lanes, among others. There might be many more but seldom would you get insufficient food supply, inadequate health care centers, abuse of people, lack of classrooms, etc. Oh, you will get these if you list them long enough but the latter would be at the lower order and not the top of the list.

Population and social issues are undoubtedly of less priority for people, and this extends to the leaders that we elect. Ask the first elected official that you meet what the projected population of his constituents would be in ten years and I'm willing to bet he/she won't have any idea. Ask them what form is their population pyramid and what established goals they have for these in the future, or what their crude birth rates are or what replacement level fertility means and they'll probably respond they have other more important priorities to face.

There is nothing wrong with focusing on socio-economic plans, though not even all think of these, and it would be great if people and especially our leaders also prepare physical framework plans. But to brush off the population and social aspect of development would end up with shells of magnificent structures with suffering people living on them, with the attendant social problems most urbanizing cities face. Others would simply justify that these are issues that national government has to address and not the local development units. Regardless of the reasons advanced, it is a reality that the more successful cities in the world are those which place human development in the center of their agenda, rather than building flashing and sophisticated glass cities. In the end, man is still the center of everything.

We need to start off with understanding population and how it behaves - of the stark reality that the population will increase and not decrease, as shown in our entire history, and that time will come there will be no space left on the surface of the earth for additional human beings, unless we develop subterranean or underwater dwellings, or colonize space. Of course there were instances in history when the world's population may have dipped, in times of wars or plagues, or during the Holocaust, but these were transitory in nature.

Thus, when countries or cities plan, the first question that should be asked is what population we are planning for. Preparing to feed a family of three is different from feeding a family of six and if we are planning over a five-, ten-, or fifteen-year horizon, we should at least assume how fast the population grows during the term. This is true even in, … most especially, local planning. We will eventually discuss the many facets of population growth later but we have to establish the basic figures first. We need to realize that almost all parameters in economic development is pegged to the population, which is why we have per capita income, hospital beds per thousand population, number of doctors per population, etc., etc. Almost all standards are ratios, the denominator of which is either, population or square unit of area (as in physical planning). Further on there is also the social aspect of demography. (to be continued)