I flew over the island of Basilan on a Huey helicopter on the eve of the Balikatan exercises, and wondered whether 6,000 Philippine troops backed by a thousand American soldiers with night surveillance equipment could make a difference in that jungle. The foliage was so dense I thought bombs and missiles would bounce off them. It was impossible to see anything beneath the forest cover.
Soldiers told me the usual visibility on the ground in that forest was 10 meters on a good day. Even the Americans heat-tracking surveillance equipment was useless in that jungle, the soldiers told me, because the equipment could not distinguish between animals and humans, much less distinguish terrorists from civilians.
For sure a number of those civilians are friends, relatives or sympathizers of the Abu Sayyaf. In a pinch, the terrorists, particularly the foot soldiers with no bounty on their heads, can easily seek refuge in civilians homes and blend in with the populace. The civilians, however, could not be evacuated before the start of the war games because the soldiers would be accused of "hamletting" and would have to spend the rest of their military service fighting a human rights case.
Even if you deployed all 100,000-plus troops of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, they would not be able to ring Metro Manila, Ramos pointed out. And Basilan even just the Sampinit jungle complex that serves as the Abu Sayyaf stronghold is several times bigger than Metro Manila.
As for a naval blockade, thats a laugh. In Zamboanga and Basilan the common military complaint was that the Abu Sayyaf, flush with cash from their hugely successful kidnapping capers, had faster boats.
Looking at those night-vision goggles, spy drones and satellite tracking provided by the Americans, we had such high hopes that the end of the Abu Sayyaf was near. The most elite units of the AFP were supposed to be hunting down Sabaya and his gang. At the very least, we thought the features of those two American hostages would stand out in any group and make sneaking out of Basilan one difficult undertaking.
Well, nothing is too difficult for the Abu Sayyaf. If they can sneak into the Zamboanga peninsula, hostages in tow, they can just as easily sneak out, with no hostages to slow them down. They have been aided by heavy rain and as the photographs have shown that dense jungle that they know so well. They were surely aided by sympathizers along the way. Except for Sabaya, Khadaffy Janjalani and a handful of other Abu Sayyaf commanders, the faces of these terrorists are not known. Our Special Forces cant tell the difference between an Abu Sayyaf foot soldier and a Sirawai farmer.
Search and destroy? Lets hope this does not turn out to be nothing but search and search. As for Operation Daybreak, there are too many contradictions between the accounts of the AFPs top brass and the soldiers who actually figured in the encounter. Certainly the military cant admit that the soldiers in Basilan were caught napping and a roving band of troopers in Zamboanga simply chanced upon Sabaya and the hostages.
We should just follow the example of the Burnhams and thank the heavens for little blessings. Two hostages are dead, but one at least is alive despite being used as a human shield. Our soldiers who stumbled into the Abu Sayyaf band did their best, moved quickly, risked their lives, got wounded. Many of them are still out there, combing the jungles of Zamboanga for an elusive enemy.
We havent seen the last of Sabaya, and we surely havent seen the last of Janjalani, whose whereabouts have been unknown since the start of Balikatan. This problem highlights the difficulties of guerrilla warfare. It also highlights the weakness of the worlds lone superpower against determined guerrillas. The Americans, it has often been pointed out, has not won a guerrilla war. You saw what happened in Vietnam. You saw what happened in Somalia, as graphically depicted in Black Hawk Down.
The Americans are at their best when they win hearts and minds. In our case, in the 1900s, they won over our people with public education, health care and public works projects. (Later, they deployed the forces of Hollywood and we were hooked.) Thats what theyre doing now in Basilan. Maybe the GIs can still declare a measure of success in that province without going into combat.
Gracia Burnham may now be safe in Wichita, but we still have a lot of potential hostages. Secure those tourist spots, all the favorite hangouts of foreigners, all those religious missions. Set up community-based systems to protect residents from all types of terrorists and crooks. Even as they flee, you can bet Sabaya and his gang are regrouping. Unless our troops can carry out their commander-in-chiefs order to search and destroy.