PAGASA raises alert for possible El Niño by mid-2026
MANILA, Philippines — State weather bureau PAGASA has raised its El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert to "El Niño Alert," warning that a warm phase of the climate phenomenon is increasingly likely to develop by mid-2026.
According to PAGASA’s advisory issued Wednesday, April 22, while "ENSO-Neutral" conditions currently prevail over the Tropical Pacific, climate models and expert judgment indicate a 79% probability of El Niño developing during the June-July-August 2026 season.
Current forecasts from the state weather bureau suggest the phenomenon could persist until early 2027.
The bureau’s decision to trigger an El Niño Alert comes after the forecast probability surpassed the 70% threshold within a two-to-three-month window.
“During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country,” PAGASA explained.
However, while much of the country may face below-normal rainfall, the western section of the Philippines could experience above-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as “habagat.”
“PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impacts of developing El Niño,” the state weather bureau said.
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