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Climate and Environment

Who will be the judge of countries' climate plans?

Amélie Bottolier-Depois - Agence France-Presse
Who will be the judge of countries' climate plans?
Protesters hold large portraits of world leaders and a banner reading "Climate inaction = crimes against the living" as they demonstrate in central Paris, on November 6, 2021, during a global day of action about climate change on the sidelines of the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference, taking place in Glasgow. "Inactive at the COP26, dying in 2050": several associations mobilized, on November 6, 2021 a few hundred people in Paris to increase the pressure on the negotiators gathered in Glasgow at the COP26 and demand "climate justice".
AFP/Thomas Coex

PARIS, France — Countries have until the end of next year to ensure their climate commitments meet the Paris agreement's cap on global warming. But who will check that their promises really do stack up? 

The question is so sensitive that, for now, the answer is: the countries themselves.

While nations have agreed to a global target aimed at avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, fossil fuel and other greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise when they should be falling.

And there is no formal organisation tasked with making sure individual nations are on track. 

"There are no 'police' to check; this is a weakness of the process," climatologist Corinne Le Quere told AFP.

Nearly 200 countries signed up to the landmark Paris deal in 2015, committing to halt warming "well below" two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, preferably limiting it to 1.5C.

And in November at the COP 26 climate summit in Glasgow, nations called for all governments to ensure their emissions plans for this decade align with the Paris temperature goals, strengthening them if necessary, by the end of 2022.  

But each country will effectively mark its own climate homework.

The process means countries can move forward "at the pace suited to their political system", said Le Quere. 

So far, it has not pulled down emissions nearly fast enough. 

'Peer pressure works'

At a global level, the United Nations' climate change body estimates that countries' 2030 emissions reduction plans will lead to warming of a devastating 2.7C.   

A separate annual analysis by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which looks at the gap between climate commitments and actual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, drills down into slightly more detail. 

It includes a particular focus on richer nations from the G20, responsible for around 80 percent of emissions. 

"We don't name and shame but we do point to the G20 members that are definitely not on track" like Australia and Mexico, said Anne Olhoff, one of the authors of the UNEP report.

But going further would be "so political, I don't see it happening in a UN context to be quite honest", she told AFP.

In fact, experts doubt that nations would agree to any formal external scrutiny. 

"We heard very clearly in Glasgow, countries like the USA say that they — and they alone — will determine what is a 1.5C pathway for their country," said Bill Hare, of the research group Climate Analytics.

And the United States are by no means the only ones. 

"I don't think the onus in this case is on the EU because we are on track to stay well within Paris," European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans told AFP during the COP conference in Glasgow. 

"We can prove it with facts."

There are a few independent analyses like Climate Action Tracker (CAT) which calculate countries' estimated trajectory — towards 1.5C, 2C, 3C, or worse.

Hare said CAT, which his organisation partners with, and other assessments will spark "a lot of discussion and disagreement" in 2022 as the deadline looms.

"There needs to be a certain amount of naming and shaming of countries for progress to happen," said Hare.  

"At least the visible risk of being named and shamed helps some countries focus on what they need to do to do the right thing."

Even the most ambitious countries will have to "sharpen their arguments" to convince people that their numbers add up, said Lola Vallejo, from the IDDRI think tank. 

Civil society, the media, and even other nations will all push governments to do more. 

"Countries that are not in line with the Paris agreement will feel they are in the hot seat. Peer pressure works," said one Western diplomat.

Fair share

Even the most ambitious emissions cutters will not be able to rest on their laurels. 

Olhoff said richer nations will likely face questions over "the historical emissions burden and of fairness and equity".

The Paris agreement underlines the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" according to national situations.

So some believe that wealthy countries, largely responsible for global warming, have a duty towards the poorest, and should therefore do more to achieve a "fair" contribution.

There are multiple ways to measure this: historical emissions, emissions per capita, carbon footprint that takes into account emissions generated by imported goods, aid to poor countries.

But essentially the key message remains the same, said Olhoff. 

If they hope to curb global warming, she said, "all countries need to go back and see if there is anything we can do more and quicker".

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As It Happens
LATEST UPDATE: October 25, 2022 - 4:28pm

Bookmark this page for updates on the United Nations climate summit, known as COP26. Photo courtesy of AFP/Tolga Akmen

October 25, 2022 - 4:28pm

Singapore announces it aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, giving a firm date for the first time, and will look at using hydrogen as a major power source.

The city-state targets for carbon emissions to peak in 2030 at 60 million tonnes, a reduction of five million tonnes from the previous goal, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said.

The Southeast Asian nation also has plans to look at developing low carbon hydrogen as a major power supply in the long term. — AFP

May 26, 2022 - 5:15pm

Australia will present a more ambitious UN emissions target "very soon" and is bidding to co-host a COP summit with Pacific island neighbours, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Thursday, signalling a ground shift in climate policy.

During a first solo overseas visit since her centre-left government was sworn in, Wong admitted that on the climate, "Australia has neglected its responsibility" under past administrations.

She told hosts in Fiji's capital Suva that there would be no more "disrespecting" Pacific nations or "ignoring" their calls to act on climate change.

"We were elected on a platform of reducing emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050," Wong said. — AFP

March 29, 2022 - 3:31pm

Countries have proposed to hold an extra biodiversity meeting in Nairobi in June as talks in Geneva tasked with saving nature entered their final day Tuesday without an agreement.

In a document uploaded on the conference website, dated Monday, countries suggest holding a new meeting in the Kenyan capital between June 21 and 26 to "continue negotiations" on the document and other issues. 

The decision is subject to official approval by the Geneva meeting before it wraps up later Tuesday. — AFP

November 15, 2021 - 7:25am

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday hails a global accord to speed up action against climate change as "truly historic" and "the beginning of the end for coal power".

But he says his "delight at this progress" at the UN COP26 summit in Glasgow was "tinged with disappointment" because of a failure to secure the agreement of all countries to phase out hydrocarbons.

"Those for whom climate change is already a matter of life and death, who can only stand by as their islands are submerged, their farmland turned to desert, their homes battered by storms, they demanded a high level of ambition from this summit," says Johnson. — AFP

November 13, 2021 - 6:02pm

A UN climate summit text on Saturday urges nations to accelerate the phase-out of unfiltered coal and "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies, after large emitters tried to remove the mention of polluting fuels. 

The text, which comes after two weeks of frantic negotiations at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, omitted any reference to specific finance for "loss and damage" -- the mounting cost of global heating so far -- which has been a key demand of poorer nations.

The mention on Saturday of fossil fuels was weaker than a previous draft, which called on countries to "accelerate the phasing out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels". — AFP

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