OCTA: Robredo-Tulfo narrowly leads Duterte-Marcos in 2028 matchup
MANILA, Philippines (Updated 4:05 p.m.) — A hypothetical 2028 tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo led a possible Vice President Sara Duterte-Sen. Imee Marcos ticket by 4 percentage points in an OCTA Research survey.
This marks what the pollster called the first recorded instance in its comparable surveys that a Robredo-led ticket surpassed a Duterte-Marcos alignment.
OCTA's March 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey showed the Robredo-Tulfo tandem with 44% support among adult Filipinos, compared with 40% for Duterte-Marcos. Another 16% were undecided.
The survey was conducted from March 19 to 25 among 1,200 adult Filipinos, with a ±3% margin of error.
Preferred presidential-vice presidential tandem
Based on OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa survey | March 19-25, 2026 | Philippines | In percent
| Tandem | PH | Area | Socioeconomic class | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCR | BL | Vis | Min | ABC | D | E | ||
| Robredo, Leni-Tulfo, Raffy | 44 | 61 | 57 | 48 | 5 | 35 | 47 | 36 |
| Duterte, Sara-Marcos, Imee | 40 | 23 | 23 | 40 | 86 | 37 | 39 | 51 |
| Undecided | 16 | 15 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 25 | 14 | 13 |
OCTA said the results were an "early-stage hypothetical preference measure" and should be read as a snapshot of current sentiment, not a prediction of election outcomes.
The pollster said the March 2026 result marked a "notable shift" from previous commissioned Tugon ng Masa surveys over the past year, most of them privately commissioned and not publicly released, which generally showed Duterte-Marcos leading comparable head-to-head scenarios by around 15 to 25 percentage points.
Regional split
The Robredo-Tulfo tandem drew its strongest support in the National Capital Region at 61%, followed by Balance Luzon at 57% and the Visayas at 48%.
Duterte-Marcos, however, dominated Mindanao with 86%, while Robredo-Tulfo registered only 5% in the region.
OCTA described the emerging contest as increasingly "regionalized and polarized," with Duterte-Marcos still anchored by overwhelming Mindanao support while Robredo-Tulfo draws strength from NCR, Balance Luzon and the Visayas.
The pollster said the Visayas and Balance Luzon are emerging as critical battlegrounds likely to shape the eventual balance of the race. In the Visayas, Robredo-Tulfo led Duterte-Marcos, 48% to 40%.
By socioeconomic class, Robredo-Tulfo led among class D respondents with 47%, while Duterte-Marcos led among class E respondents with 51%.
Among ABC respondents, the two hypothetical tickets were nearly even, with Duterte-Marcos at 37% and Robredo-Tulfo at 35%. Undecided voters were highest in the ABC group at 25%.
OCTA also flagged undecided voters as a major factor, with 16% undecided nationally and 20% in Balance Luzon. It said future shifts in alliances, governance performance, campaign visibility and national issues could still reshape the race before 2028.
Other figures
The result builds on earlier OCTA findings showing Tulfo as a competitive figure against Duterte in hypothetical 2028 scenarios.
In April 2024, OCTA commissioned surveys showed Tulfo beating Duterte in one-on-one 2028 matchups. OCTA fellow Ranjit Rye told One News' "Storycon" at the time that Tulfo won in the survey results by around 10 to 15 points, but stressed that the findings were early and that Philippine presidential elections are rarely two-way contests.
A Pulse Asia survey released earlier this month also placed Robredo in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against Duterte. While the vice president still led the March results, the gap had narrowed.
- Latest
- Trending
