Robredo cuts Duterte's wide lead in hypothetical 2028 Pulse poll
MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Sara Duterte still leads Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, a former vice president, in a potential 2028 presidential matchup, but the gap has narrowed to single digits in the latest Pulse Asia figures.
In a survey from February 27 to March 2 by Pulse ASia, Duterte led Robredo 51% to 43% in a head-to-head scenario, an eight-point margin.
The polling firm confirmed that the results commissioned by the office of Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri, first reported by Bilyonaryo. The survey had 1,200 respondents and a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
Pulse Asia 2028 presidential preference
February 27 to March 2, 2026 | Sara Duterte vs. Leni Robredo
| Group | RP | NCR | BL | Vis | Min | ABC | D | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duterte, Sara | 51 | 41 | 26 | 67 | 93 | 30 | 53 | 74 |
| Robredo, Leni | 43 | 42 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 23 |
| Unaided | ||||||||
| Others | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aquino, Bam | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Undecided/Can't say/None | 6 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Undecided/Can't say | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| None | 4 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
The latest Pulse Asia figures are not directly comparable to earlier multi-candidate surveys, but they track with a broader direction seen in recent polling: Duterte remains the early frontrunner, while Robredo has gained significant ground.
The results are despite Robredo's public refusals to run for president anew in 2028, years after her upset to Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2022.
A WR Numero poll reported by TIME in early 2024—four years before the presidential elections—placed Duterte at 36%, Sen. Raffy Tulfo at 23% and Robredo at 9%.
Early presidential preference surveys ahead of the 2028 vote
Summary of selected polling snapshots from different firms and survey formats
| Period | Pollster / source | Duterte | Robredo | Tulfo | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early 2024 | WR Numero | 36% | 9% | 23% | Duterte held a wide early lead. |
| March 2024 | Pulse Asia | 34% | 11% | 35% | Tulfo and Duterte were statistically close, while Robredo trailed far behind. |
| Q4 2025 | OCTA | 38% | 8% | 12% | Duterte’s lead over Robredo stood at 30 points. |
| March 2026 | OCTA | 33% | 21% | 9% | Duterte’s lead over Robredo narrowed to 12 points. |
| Feb. 27-March 2, 2026 | Pulse Asia head-to-head | 51% | 43% | 46% vs Duterte | Duterte led Robredo by 8 points and tied with Tulfo in a separate matchup. |
The latest Pulse Asia head-to-head result suggests Robredo is now more competitive when voters are asked to choose directly between her and Duterte.
Duterte’s support remains heavily anchored in Mindanao, where she led Robredo 93% to 6%. Robredo led in Balance Luzon, 67% to 26%, and narrowly in the National Capital Region, 42% to 41%. Duterte led in the Visayas, 67% to 31%.
Tulfo factor
Tulfo, meanwhile, is emerging as a major variable in the early 2028 field.
In a separate Pulse Asia head-to-head matchup, Duterte and Tulfo were tied at 46% each. Tulfo led Duterte in Balance Luzon, 72% to 19%, while Duterte dominated in Mindanao, 90% to 9%. They were tied in Metro Manila at 42% each.
Pulse Asia 2028 presidential preference
Philippines | February 27 to March 2, 2026 | Sara Duterte vs. Raffy Tulfo
| Group | RP | NCR | BL | Vis | Min | ABC | D | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duterte, Sara | 46 | 42 | 19 | 64 | 90 | 29 | 48 | 63 |
| Tulfo, Raffy | 46 | 42 | 72 | 32 | 9 | 49 | 47 | 32 |
| Unaided | ||||||||
| Others | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robredo, Leni | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Undecided/Can't say/Refused/None | 7 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 4 |
| Undecided/Can't say | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Refused | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| None | 6 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 4 |
The figures suggest that while Duterte remains the strongest early contender, both Robredo and Tulfo could make the race more competitive depending on the final lineup.
Analysts have said early preference surveys are signals of electoral preferences at the time surveyed. Candidate lineups, alliances and campaign conditions may still shift significantly before the 2028 elections. — Camille Diola with reports from Janvic Mateo / The STAR
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