Defending the Philippines via alliances

It is time we understand that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the increasing tension in the Taiwan Strait caused by China and the increasing pressure on the Philippines regarding the illegal possession of Philippine sovereign territory are interconnected and not isolated events.

The China-Russia coalition has now become the premier alliance of authoritarian regimes. This now includes Iran and North Korea.

The world’s democracies are trying to respond with their own alliances to counteract the intent of the authoritarian powers to divide the democratic world. In Europe, there is the NATO composed primarily of European countries plus the United States and Canada.

In Asia, there are two alliances. The first one is the QUAD composed of India, Australia, Japan and the United States. This is a response to Chinese military and economic power. This particular alliance, however, does not provide for a mutual defense agreement.

The newly formed trilateral mutual pact of the United States, Japan and the Philippines has gone a step further and includes a mutual defense agreement.

China has recently been increasing its support of Russia, including military support for its war in Ukraine. It has also displayed strong interest in reshaping the geopolitical landscape in Europe.

Recently, Xi Jinping went on a state visit to Europe, his first after five years. The main purpose was supposed to be trade and investment. However, his choice of countries displayed an intention to try and divide the democratic world. His first stop was France, whose President Macron has been advocating for an independent European policy. His next stop was Hungary. Its Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been publicly advocating an anti-Western political stance and has publicly stated that he was against giving aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russian invasion.

The next and final stop was Slovakia, which has adopted a pro-Russian policy.

In Asia, China has been attempting to make the question of Taiwan a purely local issue. This severely underestimates the consequence of China’s invasion of Taiwan.

According to Bloomberg Economics, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would cause the global economy around $10 trillion. This is the equivalent to nearly 10 percent of global GDP. This would even dwarf the combined impacts of the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, it is said, will result in less immediate distraction but would still cost the global economy around $5 trillion.

Again, Bloomberg Economics says the reason for this global catastrophe is that over 90 percent of advanced chips are produced in Taiwan and approximately half of the global fleet of ships that carry shipping containers pass through the Taiwan Strait.

Preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is vital to maintaining the US alliance system and the regional balance of power. This potential takeover of Taiwan would shift the advantage in Asia to China and encourage its authoritarian expansionism. If China succeeds in Taiwan, its next obvious target would be the Philippines.

China and Russia must strengthen its coalition to advance the interest of authoritarian regimes. The democratic alliance is composed of countries that believe in democracy and also countries that are not necessarily democratic but are under threat by Chinese expansionism. The Philippines belongs to the latter category.

However, ever since the Philippines’ open public policy to align with democratic countries, the Philippines has noticeably taken a few initial steps towards becoming a more democratic country. Although it has not yet become fully democractic, it should be noticed that in the Philippines, freedom of expression and human rights have become more accepted by the government.

The strongest opposition to the government’s policy to resist China’s aggression comes from the camp of former president Rodrigo Duterte. During his term, Duterte was openly pro-China and Russia and was publicly anti-west.

I anticipate that the Philippine foreign policy will be a major issue in the coming presidential elections if, as expected, Sara Duterte runs for president against the Marcos candidate.

China under Xi Jinping has also increased its nuclear capability. According to Pentagon estimates, Beijing started with 200 nuclear warheads in 2019 and is estimated to have amassed 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2013. This may not mean that China intends to start a nuclear war but its plan for nuclear expansion is to establish a geopolitical leverage in Asia. Perhaps it has learned its lesson from Russia, which threatens nuclear war to dissuade western countries from sending troops to Ukraine.

The American response to Beijing’s threat to its Asian allies has been to threaten China with sanctions.  However, this has proven ineffective, especially since even its European allies seek to increase trade and investments in China.

Recently, there was news that Australia and New Zealand felt threatened by China’s attempt to increase its economic and political influence in the island states in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. For example, in 2019, Solomon Islands severed its diplomatic relations with Taiwan and signed a security pact with China. In the Maldives, a pro-China government is in place.

The Philippines has formed an alliance with countries that will hopefully help protect its interests against Chinese aggression and expansionism.