OCTA: Metro Manila positivity rate rising, but indicators still considered low

MANILA, Philippines — With students trooping back to face-to-face classes and face masks no longer required, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Friday that Metro Manila is heading into yet another surge, though most indicators remain low for the time being. 

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. lifted the compulsory wearing of masks outdoors, except in areas where people cannot observe social distancing. People are still required to wear masks in indoor establishments and public transportation.

In a tweet advisory, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said the think tank observed the following upticks in COVID-19 indicators in Metro Manila:

• Positivity rate: From 12.7% on September 7 to 14.5% as of September 14
• Reproduction number: 1.03 on September 5 to 1.14 as of September 12
• Average daily attack rate: 6.12 per 100,000 population (moderate)
• One-week growth rate: 18% from -4% the previous week
• Healthcare utilization rate: 36% on September 5 to 39% as of September 14
• ICU occupancy rate: 24% as of September 5 to 33% as of September 14

Reproduction number refers to the number of people one coronavirus-positive patient can infect, while growth rate measures the speed of the increase in COVID-19 infections in a given area. 

Earlier, OCTA Research also noted separate spikes in Pangasinan and Rizal. 

"The previous peak in positivity rate in the NCR during this wave was 17.5% on August 5. There is a possibility that this current resurgence will exceed this number," he said. 

"These [numbers] are still considered low. The rise in cases in the NCR is likely to cause a corresponding rise in infections in nearby regions; Rizal and Bulacan are currently on an uptrend," David also said.