MANILA, Philippines — Another spike in COVID-19 cases is likely due to reduced compliance with public health safeguards, the Department of Health said Thursday as it warned there could be half a million active cases in Metro Manila by the middle of May if people continue to disregard health protocols.
Citing experts in epidemiologic modeling, the DOH said that adherence to minimum public health standards has declined by 7% nationwide and 12% in the capital region from March to April.
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“Analysts determined that decreases in MPHS compliance could translate to large increases in the number of cases,” the agency said.
It said a 20% decrease in MPHS compliance nationwide could lead to around 34,788 active cases, with 564 of these classified as severe and 267 as critical in mid-May.
Meanwhile, a 30% decrease in MPHS compliance might bring the cases up to 300,000—a figure higher than the record 291,618 active cases during the Omicron-driven surge in January.
“Within NCR, estimates showed that a 50% decrease in MPHS compliance may lead to around 25,000 to 60,000 new cases per day, bringing the number of NCR active cases to almost half a million by mid-May,” the department said, adding the figure is more than three times higher than the active cases during the peak of the Omicron wave.
More than half of the country, including Metro Manila, will stay under the most relaxed coronavirus alert level until the end of April.
A model from the Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network Team estimates that the introduction of a new COVID-19 variant that is two times more transmissible than Omicron may result in a peak of around 2,418 intensive care unit admissions in the capital region.
Such scenario can occur “as early as mid-May,” DOH said, adding the peak is 2.6 times higher than the 666 admissions seen in January and 8.6 times higher than the current 253 admissions.
“Throughout the pandemic, NCR had at most 1,649 available ICU beds for COVID. This estimated ICU admission will fully occupy these ICU beds and potentially overwhelm our health systems and critical care capacities.”
Averting the surge
“Numbers do not lie. The good news is, at this point, these are all still projections. We can still avert these estimates in favor of better scenarios,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said.
The DOH said that if Filipinos strictly observe health protocols and get vaccinated, the number of active cases nationwide could decrease and then plateau from 26,256 in April 12 to around 1,293 to 16,934 in mid-May.
“The same drop in severe and critical cases will also be seen, given those conditions,” the department said.
Vergeire urged the public to continue wearing best-fitted masks, isolate when sick, get vaccinated and booster, and ensure good ventilation.
The Philippines has confirmed over 3.68 million COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, with 59,769 deaths.
Over 66.65 million individuals have completed vaccination against COVID-19. Of these, only 12.47 million have received boosters.