MANILA, Philippines — Losing the backing of Partido Reporma's President and Rep. Pantaleon Alvarez (Davao Del Norte) may wear out the presidential campaign of Sen. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson, who earlier resigned from the political party, according to an analyst.
Lacson said he is still running for the highest position in the country, but as an independent candidate. The Commission on Elections, however, said the party he filed in his certificate of candidacy will remain the same in the ballots.
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Alvarez, who represents the 1st District of Davao del Norte province at the House, decided instead to endorse presidential bet Vice President Leni Robredo.
"In effect, it's going to weaken the campaign of Lacson," Dennis Coronacion, chair of the University of Santo Tomas' Department of Political Science, told Philstar.com in a Zoom interview on Friday, referring to the Partido Reporma president's decision.
"Mindanao is known as a Duterte country, probably, the large part of Mindanao has already hedged their vote for BBM (Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.) and Sara [Duterte-Carpio]," he added.
Lacson previously said he decided to quit Partido Reporma after learning that the party's slate in Davao del Norte is endorsing another bet.
In a press conference Thursday, Alvarez explained that Robredo now has his backing since she upholds the ideals which are in line with the party's aims of reforming the government and providing a better future for Filipinos.
Even if she is lagging behind the survey frontrunner, her campaign holds "so much potential", he said. Meanwhile, Lacson is trailing behind the other presidential bets in recent poll surveys.
"In the case of Sen. Ping Lacson, the problem with his candidacy now is, he's not doing very well in the mainstream polls of Pulse Asia, and the SWS (Social Weather Stations). He needs the support, not only of local governments, but basic sectors," Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman, told Philstar.com over a phone call on Friday.
She added: "It's more difficult now for him to run a campaign without a political party."
Atienza explained Lacson might particularly have a more difficult time securing votes in Mindanao, especially in areas where "command votes" are important, where voters would believe in Alvarez's endorsement.
"With these new developments, there will definitely be a lot more pressure on the part of Sen. Ping Lacson to actually withdraw from the race, but there was a pronouncement that he will continue his candidacy," she said.
Michael Henry Yusingco, a senior research fellow at the Ateneo de Manila University Policy Center, said Lacson's "divorce" from Partido Reporma "will likely worsen" his chances for the presidency to a certain extent, but the overall effect will be minimal.
"My view is, it's going to have a very minimal effect on his candidacy, because in the first place, he's not performing well," he told Philstar.com over a Zoom call, referring to the lawmaker's survey ratings.
Speaking on ANC Headstart on Friday, Lacson's spokesperson Ashley Acedillo said that Alvarez and his team may have underestimated Lacson as a candidate and overestimated the chances of their new bet.
More Davao voters seen to support Robredo
Alvarez's endorsement of Robredo may translate to support from voters in Davao, according to Atienza.
"I think what he can really realistically promise is the support for a large part of voters in Davao because if we look at in 2019, the candidates that Congressman Alvarez supported in 2019 in Mindanao defeated the candidates supported by the Dutertes and particularly Sara [Duterte-Carpio]," she said.
"In that sense, it proves that at least in that area, Alvarez and perhaps his allies in local governments can still deliver votes in their areas."
Because Alvarez performed well in the 2019 elections, he now carries a "momentum against the Duterte brand" especially in the region where the Dutertes are supposed to be strong, according to Yusingco.
"Definitely the support of former speaker Alvarez will help the campaign of VP (Vice President) Leni in that region."
Alvarez may have had 'no other choice'
Coronacion believes that Alvarez may have been left "with no choice" on who to endorse.
"There was bad blood between the Dutertes and Pantaleon Alvarez so he would never ever support BBM and Sara Duterte-Carpio so his next option- his only option actually is to go with Leni Robredo's camp," he said.
A day after Alvarez announced the party's new bet, Partido Reporma's Founder and Chairman Emeritus Renato De Villa said he will stick to his endorsement of Lacson, adding that he had no idea of such an "unfortunate scenario". He said he was taken by surprise by the events which took place Thursday.
The elections may be drawing closer, but alliances are never set in stone.
"What can explain this is the fact that the local political leaders...would like to increase their chance of being with the future president. It's like they're being opportunistic," Coronacion said.
Given the lack of laws which encourage strong political party system in the Philippines, alliances and loyalties can be changed anytime. The colloquial term for this is "balimbing" or being a turncoat.
"Politicians change their parties, change their colors, so to speak. It's a common occurrence in our political and electorial system," Yusingco said.
"It's one of the reasons why our democracy has not evolved since 1986. We continue to languish in...our democratic process where our politicians are elected not on the basis of policy or principles and programs, but on the basis of their personality, on the basis of their alliances [or] on the basis of their family name," he added.
For him, there is a need to establish more laws which will strengthen the country's political parties by governing them as well as banning turncoatism.