MANILA, Philippines — If the “explosive” increase in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila goes unchecked, hospitals will be swamped enough to overwhelm medical frontliners by the first week of April, the OCTA Research Group warned over the weekend.
In their report dated March 20, OCTA Research fellows Fr. Nicanor Austriaco and Michael Tee noted that the National Capital Region (NCR) continued to report a “record number of new cases of COVID-19 every day” this past week.
The reproduction number, they said, was placed at 1.95. “This indicates that on average, one COVID-19 positive person is infecting nearly two other persons,” the report read.
Based on the research group’s projection, using these figures, the total bed and ICU (intensive care unit) capacity of hospitals in NCR would reach 100 percent or full occupancy by the first week of April.
“As acknowledged by the local representative of the WHO (World Health Organization’s Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe), this explosive rise in cases in the capital region now threatens the integrity of our healthcare system,” the research fellows said.
A slight reduction in the reproduction rate, or slowing down even by a minimal rate, would be able to delay this critical point by about one to two weeks to the middle of April.
“These projections suggest that the current surge in the capital is at a critical juncture,” OCTA said.
As such, OCTA again pushed for the national government and local government units (LGUs) in Metro Manila to take drastic steps.
“Unless the national government and our LGUs take drastic and immediate action to significantly reduce the reproduction number of the surge in Metro Manila, we should expect our hospital facilities and medical frontliners to be overwhelmed within a period of several weeks, just around and after Easter,” OCTA warned.