MANILA, Philippines - A former World Bank official has warned of dire consequences for the Philippines if the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) is not passed into law.
Nigel Roberts, former director on conflict, security and development, said that more conflict could occur without the BBL.
Based on his studies, civil wars on average cost countries 30 years of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
“It takes about 15 years to get back to pre-conflict GDP growth rates, and 20 years for trade to recover,” Roberts said in his blog at the World Bank website.
The Mindanao conflict has claimed over 120,000 lives over the past 40 years, and has displaced two million people. The World Bank estimated that economic losses amounted to $10 billion between 1975 and 2002.
“War may enrich a few individuals, but it bankrupts nations,” he added in his report.
The postcolonial world is a tale of two kinds of state: those that have set war aside and have prospered, and those that persist with war and remain poor.
Roberts said countries that experienced major violence through the 1980s and 1990s entered the new century with 20 percent more of their citizens poor than those that remained at peace.
He warned the people that the absence of a legal framework like the BBL would mean a resumption of massive armed conflict.
“There’s a strong possibility that Mindanao slides back into armed conflict, and the fragile boundaries separating those seeking a settlement and those who want no such thing disappear,” Roberts said.
Roberts recommended that the Mamasapano incident in Maguindanao be viewed in a broader context.
History reveals that peace processes never proceed smoothly, he said, adding many fail outright or take decades to get anywhere.
Setbacks are inevitable in a peace process but the question is how leaders respond, he said.
Al Amanah Bank’s transfer
The Development Bank of the Philippines agrees with the proposed transfer of the management of the Islamic Al Amanah Bank to the soon-to-be established Bangsamoro government as provided in the BBL now pending in House and Senate.
Al-Amanah Bank caters mostly to the needs of the Muslim populace in the South.
DBP senior vice-president Isidro Roy Sobrecarey reportedly said that the move is in line with the bank’s declaration of full support for the government’s peace initiative, particularly the passage of the draft BBL into law.
Sobrecaray said the DBP has declared its stand in a position paper sent to Cagayan de Oro Rep. Rufus Rodriguez, chairman of the House ad hoc committee on the BBL.
“We sent a position paper to Rep. Rufus Rodriguez that DBP particularly agrees with the financial proposals in the BBL, especially the transfer of management of the Al Amanah Bank to the Bangsamoro government,” said Sobrecarey. – With Edith Regalado, Jose Rodel Clapano