Anti-Estrada lawmakers top SWS poll on Senate bets

Senators and congressmen who went against former President Joseph Estrada during his impeachment trial led the first post-Estrada and post-people power II survey of possible winners in the May senatorial elections.

The survey was conducted in Metro Manila by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last Jan. 27, a week after Estrada was ousted and 11 days after his impeachment trial was abruptly ended.

Topping the list of possible winners is Sen. Juan Flavier, followed by Sen. Franklin Drilon, Makati Rep. Joker Arroyo, Sen. Sergio Osmeña III, Sen. Ramon Magsaysay Jr., human rights lawyer-broadcaster Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan, broadcaster Noli de Castro, former Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado, Batangas Rep. Ralph Recto, former Press Secretary Ricardo Puno, former Speaker Manuel Villar Jr. and former Pangasinan Rep. Oscar Orbos.

Arroyo, Recto and Villar are among more than 100 congressmen led by former minority leader and now Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. (Lakas, Quezon City) who supported the impeachment complaint against Estrada.

It was under Villar’s leadership that the House impeached the former president last Nov. 13.

Of the three, Arroyo made the biggest leap, jumping from outside the winning circle to the third slot. He, together with Rep. Oscar Moreno (Lakas, Misamis Oriental), exposed Estrada’s controversial Jose Velarde accounts.

Judging from their questions in the impeachment trial, Flavier, Drilon, Osmeña, and Magsaysay were for ousting the former president.

The only pro-Estrada candidate in the winning circle are Puno.

The ruling Lakas-led coalition is planning to draft Flavier, Drilon, Arroyo, Magsaysay, Villar, Recto and Pangilinan in its Senate slate.

Osmeña, who is considered a sure winner, is not being drafted because defeated presidential candidate Lito Osmeña, who heads the Probinsiya Muna Development Initiative (Promdi), wants to be in the coalition’s ticket. Promdi is a coalition member.

Senators Gregorio Honasan and Juan Ponce Enrile occupy the 13th and 14th slots, and are therefore within striking distance of the "Magic 12."

In 15th and 16th are former Executive Secretary Edgardo Angara and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, a consistent Top 5 performer in previous surveys.

Honasan, Enrile and Santiago are among the 11 pro-Estrada senators who voted on Jan. 16 against opening the second Equitable-PCI Bank envelope that prosecutors claimed contained bank records showing that Estrada had amassed at least P3.23 billion in one account and in one bank alone.

Defensor is followed by Executive Secretary Renato de Villa, former Economic Planning Secretary Solita Monsod, Rep. Heherson Alvarez, defeated senatorial candidate Roberto Pagdanganan, Estrada spokesman on impeachment matters Ernesto Maceda, Rep. Wigberto Tañada, former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Perfecto Yasay Jr., and Trade Secretary Mar Roxas.

Alvarez and Pagdanganan are reportedly in the ruling coalition’s Senate slate. Also in the ticket are Representatives Ernesto Herrera (Lakas, Bohol) and Sergio Apostol (Lakas, Leyte), who occupied the 25th and 26th slots, respectively, in the Jan. 27 SWS survey.

President Arroyo has reportedly offered Apostol the position of solicitor general. The Leyte congressman is a former judge and Quezon City fiscal.

Estrada Cabinet members Horacio Morales (agrarian reform) and Roberto Aventajado (flagship projects), who are eyeing Senate seats, are in the bottom of the SWS list, occupying the 32nd and 33rd places.

Meanwhile, Deputy Speaker for Luzon Carlos Padilla declined yesterday his inclusion in his party’s senatorial ticket.

Padilla belongs to the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) which is led by former Executive Secretary Edgardo Angara. He heads an LDP breakaway faction that supported the impeachment complaint against Estrada.

The House official is seeking reelection in the lone congressional district of Nueva Vizcaya.

Another LDP congressman who declined his nomination to be in his party’s Senate slate is Makati Rep. Agapito Aquino, who is also seeking re-election.

Poll shows 45% trust new president

Some 45 percent of Manila residents trust new President Arroyo, compared with 24 percent who have "little trust" in her, according to a poll released yesterday.

Former President Joseph Estrada, meanwhile, retained a 30 percent trust rating, compared with the 48 percent of the capital’s residents who have little trust in him, according to the Social Weather Stations pollster. The rest of the respondents gave no opinion or were undecided.

The poll, with a margin of error of six percent, does not necessarily reflect the situation nationwide. Estrada says his support comes from the poor, particularly in areas outside Manila.

The survey of 300 Manila residents was taken Jan. 27, a week after festive street protests, backed by the defections of top military officials and Cabinet ministers, forced Estrada out of office.

Some 65 percent of respondents said Estrada’s forced departure was "justified" while 22 percent said it was not.

The poll also showed intense popular interest in events surrounding Estrada’s ouster.

Some 13 percent of Manila adults, or 840,000 people, said they participated in rallies from Jan. 16-20, either for or against Estrada, according to the poll.

Rallies started when senators judging Estrada’s impeachment trial voted Jan. 16 to bar prosecutors from bank records they said would prove he grew rich off bribes and kickbacks. Prosecutors resigned, calling the vote a virtual acquittal. Protests formed in Manila and other cities within an hour and kept up virtually around the clock until Estrada left the palace.

The poll also showed 86 percent of Manila residents watched the Senate vote live on television and 80 percent said it was "unjust." Some 79 percent of respondents said they also watched as Arroyo was sworn in live on television while 2 percent said they attended the Mass ceremony at EDSA.

A nationwide survey taken Dec. 8-17 by the same pollster showed a rapid drop in popularity of Macapagal-Arroyo, then vice president, in the last three months of 2000.

Mrs. Arroyo, who was elected separately and broke with Estrada over the corruption allegations in October, received a 36 percent national satisfaction rating in December, down from 73 percent three months earlier.

That poll of 2,400 respondents taken Dec. 8-17 had a margin of error of 2 percent.