As I write this column over the traditional All Saints’ Day and All Souls’ Day holiday, I wonder if the recent deterioration of the peso against the US dollar, the rising inflation and the high cost of jet fuel have crimped the travel plans of most Filipinos.
Following the US-Iran War in February this year, jet fuel prices have spiked to over $200 per barrel.
As such, the Civil Aeronautics Board has repeatedly raised fuel surcharges – reaching as high as Level 19, which allows local airlines to add up to P1,834 on domestic air fares and up to P15,397 for international air fares – increasing travel costs by up to 25 percent.
Travel disruptions in the Middle East airport have already dampened travel to Europe, while travel within the Southeast Asian region and to the US has not been disrupted.
Just before the start of the traditional Undas holiday, when most Filipinos take the opportunity to go on vacation abroad or go home to the province for a quick visit to pay their respects to their departed loved ones, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) released a statement that it expects to handle approximately 1.25 million passengers during the nine-day Undas travel period from Oct. 27 to Nov. 4.
According to NAIA, they project a one percent increase from the 1.24 million passengers that they recorded during the same period last year, with Oct. 30 projected to be the busiest day, with about 149,000 travelers passing through the airport.
Similarly, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) said that it approved over 1,200 special permits for provincial buses to accommodate the holiday exodus.
The Parañaque Integrated Terminal Exchange or PITX projected that it would service around 1.89 million passengers.
Perhaps for domestic bus travel, the projected number of passengers will be reached, but I wonder if domestic air travel – given the continued high price of jet fuel – is now constrained, especially since Undas is the start of our very long holiday season.
It will be interesting to hear from NAIA and LTFRB if their projected passenger numbers were on target or below expectations – giving us a possible glimpse on how much economic leeway Filipinos have for future travel expenses for the coming long holiday.
For me, the Undas holiday has been the best time to enjoy the city with fewer people on the road and thus less traffic. I only make sure to avoid areas where cemeteries are located.
I have made it a practice to visit my departed loved ones a week before Nov. 1 to avoid the traffic jam and road closures that occur on Nov. 1 and 2, and just peacefully enjoy the city on those two days without the traffic and the packed malls and restaurants.
But this year, I am really curious to see how most Filipinos are adjusting to the rising cost of just about everything, and if traveling – especially abroad – is still within their budget.
It’s really difficult to gauge whether Filipinos truly feel the economic squeeze.
Perhaps because I am a Baby Boomer and a retiree already, I prefer to hunker down during an economic dip, waiting to see just how much more the economy can get battered, especially at this unique point in history when the global order is radically changing.
I am more willing to forego the pleasure of a brief holiday travel junket to ensure that I am still able to meet all of my basic expenses for the rising cost of electricity, water, food, transportation and particularly, future medical costs.
The younger generation, however, have the FOMO (fear of missing out) mentality and would rather live in the moment than plan for the future.
I also prefer to wait when prices have stabilized before splurging. I am still wary about further fluctuations of the peso against the dollar, with many fearing that the 65 per dollar level may be breached before this year ends.
However, with the Christmas holidays just around the corner, the pressure on the peso may ease as overseas Filipinos return to spend Christmas and New Year here, with their US dollars traded for more pesos to spend on their relatives.
On the other hand, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently reported that air traffic demand fell by 0.5 percent in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America.
Nevertheless, IATA said, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets. IATA added that these patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and it expects this trend to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices.
Global scheduled seat capacity, IATA assured, is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions.
For Asia-Pacific airlines, the IATA reported a 0.7-percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased by 0.4 percent year-on-year, and the load factor reached 83.1 percent. Traffic increased on four of the six largest international route areas serving Asia-Pacific.
On routes within Asia, traffic declined by 0.9 percent, though this was a slower rate of decline than in August.
The IATA figures, thus, show another reality: foreign tourists, who are likewise affected by geopolitical turmoil, are staying put in their own countries or regions because of the high cost of air travel and disruptions caused by the continuing conflict between Iran and the US, which has affected a major Middle East travel hub linking Europe and Asia.