Notes on the beat
MANILA, Philippines — South African singer Tyla made waves with her Grammy-winning hit “Water,” but El Niño is putting the spotlight on water for a different reason.
With the country bracing for hotter and drier conditions, hydropower developers are hopeful of turning the dry spell into an opportunity to advance project construction.
Philhydro Association Inc. is urging the government to help developers make the most of the situation and bring more hydropower projects online.
“While the water levels are low, which do not bode well for operating hydro plants, it will be easier for hydro construction,” Philhydro president Francis Joel Sayre said over the weekend.
The Department of Energy (DOE) has warned that El Niño could reduce hydropower generation by as much as 40 percent.
The climate phenomenon raises the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, increasing the risk of dry spells and drought in several parts of the country.
A strong El Niño is currently active in the tropical Pacific. Weather experts have said it could intensify into a “very strong El Niño” toward the end of the year. It is expected to persist until the first half of 2027.
But for Sayre, there is no better time to develop hydro projects than now.
“Time and time again, we all know hydro is not one of those that can benefit from economies of scale, unlike solar and wind,” he said.
“Production lines in the manufacturing of hydro turbines and generators rarely produce the same sizes, rating and capacity, since each and every hydro project is unique.”
Depending on the technology used, hydropower projects can provide baseload, mid-merit and peaking electricity requirements, as well as ancillary services to support grid reliability.
Run-of-river hydro, like geothermal, can serve as a baseload source because it provides a steady supply of electricity, subject to available river flows.
Dam-based hydro plants with dispatchable capacity can serve mid-merit demand by adjusting their output to respond to fluctuations in electricity demand.
Pumped-storage hydro, meanwhile, can meet peak demand by storing energy and quickly generating electricity when demand is highest.
Last year, hydro accounted for about 11 percent of the country’s total gross power generation, according to DOE data.
“Hydro can help bring to realization the government’s target of 35 percent RE (renewable energy) share by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050, but we need support,” Sayre stressed.
He lamented that global instability is adding to local challenges, making it harder for hydropower developers to move projects forward.
“We are at the crossfire of wars, oil crisis and political conflict affecting almost every industry globally, and hydro being one of the hardest hit with unfinished projects due to highly inflated costs,” Sayre said.
Still, Philhydro is holding on to the DOE’s commitment to accelerating hydropower development through the seventh green energy auction (GEA-7) round.
GEA-7 will offer run-of-river hydropower capacity in Mindanao, with projects expected to be completed between 2028 and 2031.
This follows previous awards under GEA-1 for run-of-river hydro and GEA-3 for pumped-storage hydro. Projects awarded under these rounds are underway, with several nearing completion.
Philhydro is also calling for further government support through run-of-river hydro auctions for Luzon and the Visayas next year, as well as separate bidding rounds for other hydropower technologies.
The DOE is likewise urged to develop a medium- to long-term hydropower development plan aligned with the existing Philippine Energy Plan.
As El Niño threatens to make Filipinos sweat over rising power bills and possible blackouts, hydropower developers are hoping the government will match their efforts to keep the country’s energy future from running dry.