Even with so many uncertainties happening outside the country’s borders, and which we have little control of, there are issues that we Filipinos, with our six-month old government, can take charge of and provide sustainable solutions.
Will 2023 be a turning point, or will there be no change? We’re not asking for the moon, just some positive responses to concerns that grate our sensibilities day in and day out. Here’s a list, with each item rated on the probability of being resolved during the coming year. It would be interesting to know how you’d rank them too.
1. Food prices to return to near pre-pandemic levels
Prices of several agricultural commodities remain elevated, and while some reasons are currently beyond our control (ex., high dependence of costly imported fertilizers), a few are solvable if government would just expend more effort.
Hog farms that were decimated by African swine fever (ASF) the last three years should now be returning to full operation. With more local pork available in the market, prices should ease from current levels. Chicken prices should likewise follow.
As for sugar, government must ensure that there is enough imported on a regular basis to avoid pressure on local supply and demand. As for onions, policing smugglers and price-fixing importers should do the trick.
Probability: 70 percent
2. Declining severity of COVID-19 infections
Reporting of COVID-19 infections has become less and less reliable as more Filipinos who test positive through home test kits are not captured in the Department of Health’s monitoring system. Barring any new variant this year that would elude current vaccine efficacy, the nation is learning how to deal and live with this virus that caused the deaths of more than 65,000 Filipinos.
For almost a whole year now, the intensive care units of hospitals devoted to COVID-19 patients have not been swamped with cases, thus allowing more health professionals to focus on the care of others. Will we be able to declare the pandemic over this year?
Probability: 80 percent
3. Better protection, jobs for our OFWs
Overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), as well as working migrants from other parts of the world, are almost always treated one or several notches lower than nationals in the foreign lands where they are employed. More concerning is the degree of abuse they have to contend with.
We have a newly minted Department of Migrant Workers (DMW) now that promises to put in place more initiatives that would protect our OFWs. For more than two million migrant workers, the DMW should represent new hope that all their sacrifices away from their families will be compensated by better protection and better jobs.
Will all the good intentions that our lawmakers had when crafting the law creating the DMW be able to provide a better framework in the recruitment, deployment, and redeployment of Filipinos who have made overseas work their path to a better life?
Probability: 20 percent
4. No life lost during natural disasters
Super typhoons, strong earthquakes, and erupting volcanos are usual fare for the Philippines given its distinct location in the world. Our experiences with extreme natural disasters over the last decades have slowly helped build up an arsenal of equipment to better monitor the weather, tides, and underground seismic movements.
Unfortunately, much more needs to be done, not so much in preventing the unavoidable property and agricultural produce damage brought about by these strong forces of nature, but to minimize or totally avoid losing lives.
We must be more adept at utilizing data collected and shared with our scientists, but our national and local governments must be on their toes to ensure that everyone goes into shelter before the worst hits.
Probability: 30 percent
5. Less Filipinos experiencing and expressing poverty
Some 400,000 Filipinos were estimated to have joined the poverty ranks as a result of the pandemic. A strong economic rebound this year, however, should bring back better incomes for families, and consequently, allowing them to return to a better quality of life.
While the global economic outlook remains dimmed by threats of recession in many developed economies, countries in Southeast Asia including the Philippines are expected to be able to manage growth, albeit lower than initial estimates at the beginning of 2022. OFW remittances will continue to provide the major source of income for families to tide them over through another year.
Probability: 80 percent
6. Surge in public-private partnerships
The investment push that President Marcos has undertaken during his numerous overseas trips during the first six months of his term will unlikely bring about a decisively huge amount of fresh money for new businesses or expansion next year.
Even then, the country needs to sustain investment levels to enable economic growth goals to be achieved. Particularly important would be the power sector, which urgently needs new projects to break ground if wide-scale brownouts and even blackouts are to be avoided in the coming years.
Probability: 40 percent
7. Diminishing importance of food security
Food security is one of the priority goals, albeit a long-term one, that the new administration has vowed to accomplish. During the first six months of the year, very little has been said or done towards laying a credible platform to pave the way for this aspiration.
As global supply chains are repaired and the world learns to adapt to the inconveniences created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through next year, the call for food security will likely become less important, and the goal less urgent.
Probability: 90 percent
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