News Analysis: Syrian opposition's disarray could benefit Assad's position

DAMASCUS (Xinhua) - Syrian opposition's rejection of talks with the Damascus government and its great disarray would benefit President Bashar al-Assad's administration, local analysts said.

After a week-long meeting in Turkey's Istanbul, Syria's National Coalition (SNC), the main opposition umbrella in exile, refused to partake in an international conference in Geneva that aimed to craft a political prelude to end the 26-month-old conflict in Syria, citing what it called the relentless attack by the Syrian army on the central city of al-Qussair.

Local analysts played down the SNC's pretext and said that its rejection emanated from its inner differences and that the conference will surely take place as officials from Russia, the United States and the United Nations are expected to meet in Geneva on June 5 to discuss preparations for the upcoming conference.

Yet, political analysts said that the longer it takes for the conference to be held, the better the situation would turn in favor of the Syrian administration.  SYRIAN ARMY'S ALL OUT ASSAULT

The Syrian army has waged an all-out assault against rebels' strongholds since April. The fight focused on the central strategic city of al-Qussair where the Syrian troops reportedly backed by fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group are scoring a series of victories against the rebels in that key area close to the Lebanese borders.

Al-Qussair's battles could be decisive and important for the Syrian troops as it would deprive the rebels of key supply line from neighboring Lebanon.

Maher Morhej, a political expert and head of the oppositional Youth Party, told Xinhua that the Syrian administration has no problem in waiting for the conference as its troops are making huge achievements, adding that "the only beneficiary in delaying the conference is the regime, not the rebels."  

OPPOSITION DISARRAY

Since the start of the crisis in Syria, the Syrian opposition has been hobbled with division and great differences.

The opposition has been divided between exiled opposition groups, Syria-based ones, and various rebel groups on ground.

The difference between the broad-based SNC and other groups inside Syria is that the SNC has been a staunch backer of foreign intervention in Syria and rebels' armament, while the home-based groups believe that the anti-Assad movement should maintain a nonviolent method to establish a new democratic, civil state far from foreign military intervention.

The rebels on ground have become more organized under the banner of the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front and other Islamic-themed groups whose fighters believe in neither democracy nor freedom but the establishment of an Islamic emirate. Moreover, the Islamist rebels overtly said that the political opposition doesn't represent them.

Analysts wonder that even if the political opposition embark on a political dialogue, who would have sway on the radical groups to make them abide by any political decision?

Bassam Abdullah, a political expert who runs a research center in Damascus, said the SNC rejected to participate in the Geneva conference because "it has no political program."

He contended that the exiled opposition has always placed its bets on the possibility of a foreign military intervention to topple Assad by forces.  

WEST'S SABRE-RATTLING

While ostensibly backing the Russian-American initiative for peace in Syria, the European Union (EU) has decided to lift arms ban on the Syrian rebels to secure what British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Assad "seriousness" in dialogue.

Hague said the option will remain on the table waiting for the results of the conference.

The move was seen by local political analysts as aiming to give a boost to the rebels in Syria especially after defeats they are taking in central Syria.

Essam Khalil, a Syrian lawmaker, told Xinhua that the move aims to embolden the rebels and push them to keep on fighting.

Other observers said the decision has emboldened the SNC and pushed it to play tough by rejecting the dialogue in the hope of obtaining more gains ahead of the negotiations.

The planned conference in Geneva is set to focus on the recent US-Russian efforts to revive political options for resolving the long-standing stalemate in the conflict-stricken country.