Senate elections

Senatorial elections have always been a major topic of discussion and speculation. This year, the candidates for the 2019 senatorial elections will be finalized. There are already surveys on the most probable winners and speculation on who will be running.

One of the reasons that there is so much interest in senatorial elections is the perception that the Senate is a major route to the Presidency. But is this really true?

In the post Marcos martial law regime, there have been six democratically elected presidents. Three did not serve in the Senate – Corazon Aquino, Fidel Ramos, Rodrigo Duterte. Three served in the Senate – Joseph Estrada, Gloria Arroyo, Noynoy Aquino. However, two of them – Estrada and Arroyo – became president right after winning the vice presidency. Only Noynoy Aquino went directly from the Senate to the presidency.

It is true that being a senator gives a political personality national exposure. But it would seem that being a senator is not enough credentials for a person to win the presidency in the modern political era.

The shift toward federalism will also be a major development in the Philippine political environment. The election of state or regional governors will provide another route to the presidency. We can learn lessons from the American political system which is presidential and federal.

In the post Eisenhower period, there have been nine American presidents. Three of them served in the US Senate – John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson. Richard Nixon. Four of them became president after becoming state governors – Jimmy Carter of Georgia, Ronald Reagan of California, Bill Clinton of Arkansas and George Bush Jr.of Texas. George Bush Sr. ran for the Senate and lost. He became Reagan’s vice-president and won the presidency after Reagan. Donald Trump is the political outlier who became president without holding any previous elective or appointive government office.

In the history of the Philippine Senate, none of the Senators I most admire and respect ever became presidents. My personal list includes Claro M. Recto, Lorenzo Tañada, Jose W. Diokno, Raul Manglapus, Ninoy Aquino, Joker Arroyo and Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. I always thought they would have become great presidents. But the fact that they never became presidents has not diminished their influence on Philippine history. In fact, they have had more impact on our country than most of our previous presidents. 

Fifty years from now, I wonder how many of the senators today will still be remembered as having contributed to their country’s progress. Perhaps now is a good time to look back at the members of the Philippine Senate 50 years ago  and how many have left any lasting legacy. 

The Senate leadership of the 1954-1957 Senate were Eulogio Rodriguez, Senate President; Manuel Briones, President Pro Tempore, Cipriano Primicias, Majority Floor Leader. The members of the Third Congress were elected in 1953 and 1955. The list includes the following names: Democrito Alonzo, Tomas Cabili, Manuel Cuenco, Francisco Delgado, Ruperto Kangleon, Jose Laurel Sr., Oscar Ledesma, Jose Locsin, Fernando Lopez, Alejo Mabanag, Pacital Madrigal Gonzalez, Enrique Magalona, Quintin Paredes, Emmanuel Pelaez, Macario Peralta, Gil Puyat, Claro Recto, Francisco Soc Rodrigo, Decoroso Rosales, Pedro Sabido, Lorenzo Sumulong, Lorenzo Tanada, Jose Zulueta.

Perhaps our senators will stop focusing on becoming the next president and realize that they can use their position to leave a lasting legacy equal justice and equal opportunity for all Filipinos. 

2018 overview

For those interested in international geopolitics, Stratfor is a good site for quick assessments and analysis. In their 2018 annual forecast, they identified five major factors to watch this year – North Korea, US Trade Policy, Oil Industry, Iran, and China-Russia collaboration.

North Korea’s demonstration of a viable nuclear deterrent this year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. The threat of war on the Korean peninsula cannot be ruled out but a preventive strike against North Korea will cost millions of lives and plunge the global economy into a recession or even a depression.

The White House will forge ahead with an aggressive agenda that will target China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan. I personally think that a global trade war is about to begin and countries all over the world will begin to adopt nationalist, protectionist trade and investment policies.

The United States, Israel  and Saudi Arabia will close ranks against Iran. This means that proxy battles will intensify all over the Middle East. Russia will exploit these mounting tensions to expand its influence in the Middle East at the expense of the United States.

Major oil producers hope to stay on track to rebalance the global oil market. Saudi Arabia and Russia may be able to work together to counteract an expected uptick in US shale oil output.

Deepening collaboration between China and Russia will pose a strategic threat to the United States, spurring Washington to try and check the budding partnership by reinforcing its own allies in the Eurasian heartland. The fluidity of alignments among great powers will increasingly define the international system as Moscow and Beijing  balance against each other, just as many US allies hedge their relationships with Washington. 

Amidst all these gloomy predictions we can only look for hope from people like Pope Francis who has constantly been the voice for peace and sanity in this world. I still remember his message last year: “Peace is the only direction of human progress – and not the tensions caused by ambitious nationalisms, nor conquests by violence nor repressions which serve as mainstay for a false civil order.”

I wish everyone a Happy and Peaceful New Year.

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