Fury

The region is likely in greater peril than it might prefer to think. This is because, with each passing day, the confrontation over North Korea’s missiles seems to pass from the hands of diplomats to the hands of, well, madmen.

Last week, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to impose severe economic sanctions on the Pyongyang regime. US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley described the sanctions as a blow to the gut.

It is unlikely, however, North Korea will abandon its missile development program because of the sanctions. In the past, the callous regime in Pyongyang demonstrated they would rather see their peasants starve than concede their military ambitions.

North Korea’s foreign minister made that point very clear the other day, in the course of the ASEAN Regional Forum meetings in Manila. He said his government was open to negotiations on everything except the missile program.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is singularly obsessed with building up his missile capability. The missile program is the only card in his deck. Without his missiles, he will be naked in a hostile world. No amount of sanctions, no severity of famine, will separate Jong-un from his missiles.

North Korean missile tests have been happening more intermittently the past few months. They involve different missile delivery systems, including what Pyongyang claims to be intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting the US mainland.

A few months ago, after North Korea fired missiles into the Sea of Japan, Trump announced he would send an “armada” to the South Korean coast. It turned out the “armada” was a carrier battle group that happened to be heading south for scheduled maneuvers with the Australian navy.

The past couple of weeks, the US sent its most advanced stealth bombers over the Korean peninsula in a show of force. None of that impressed Kim Jong-un.

Last week, US security officials “assessed” that Pyongyang could have achieved the capability to miniaturize nuclear weapons so that they could be fitted onto its missiles. That assessment awaits full confirmation.

Trump sort of expected that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would talk to Kim Jong-un and the problem would be solved. He was disappointed with Xi when that did not happen. The American leader seems incapable of grasping the complexities of the real world.

Last Monday, from his golf club retreat, Trump responded to Kim Jong-un’s running bluster by warning North Korea of “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” Those remarks seemed to raise ghosts of Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Shortly after Trump made those furious comments, Pyongyang threatened to attack Guam with its missiles. The tiny island is host to the fleet of advanced Stealth bombers maintained by the US Air Force.

After Trump spoke, American politicians and diplomats proceeded to tear their hair out. The American president just played into Pyongyang’s hands, justifying the latter’s claim that the US intends to attack North Korea and every means to ensure the country’s defense is justified.

On any TV show, Trump is free to make threats. But as US President, he should know that one does not make threats without making sure he is ready to deliver on them.

The US is not ready for war in the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang may or may not have the capability yet to build nuclear warheads. The Korean People’s Army may or may not have the capability to accurately target their missiles. But one thing is sure: North Korea has thousands of conventional artillery pieces arrayed against Seoul. The moment the US mounts a strike against North Korea’s missile facilities, Seoul will be pulverized by a conventional artillery barrage from the north. Tens of thousands of lives will be lost in the first few minutes.

The conventional artillery pieces, ironically, is the unstoppable threat that prevents North Korea’s missile sites from being attacked. The South Koreans know this. Washington’s politicians and diplomats know this. Only Trump does not.

Pyongyang can fire a lousy missile aimed at Guam just for effect. That missile could land in Cebu, given poor targeting capabilities. The US will have no recourse. Trump will likely fire back with tweets.

The fresh UN sanctions, although it is a blow to North Korea’s gut, will not force it to disarm. The sanctions are meaningful only as it strengthens the hand of American, Japanese and South Korean diplomats negotiating with Pyongyang.

Let this be underscored: the sanctions are useless unless diplomats are able to find a way to open lines of communications with the North Korean leadership. Without negotiations, the sanctions will only force North Korean peasants to starve. The Kim Jong-un leadership can withstand that, tightening the grip of the communist party and the people’s army over this unfortunate country.

Trump’s incendiary remarks only make diplomacy impossible. Such belligerent remarks will not solve the Korean standoff.

There is no active hotline between Washington and Pyongyang like there is between the American and Russian capitals. Rants could be easily misinterpreted. Actions could be easily misread.

Donald Trump, out of sheer incompetence, could actually tweet his way into a war nobody wants. He could cause Seoul to be incinerated and Tokyo to be put under the gun.  The Philippines, definitely within range of North Korea’s clumsy rockets, could be hit by stray missiles.

Some have said that social media channels are injurious to humanity’s health. In our part of the world, this will not be because of trolls. It will be because of Trump.