Asia in transition

Asia, the home to more people than any other region in the world, is in the midst of a political transition. While it is understandable that Filipinos are primarily focused on the major issues confronting the nation, it is important that we also monitor major events happening among our neighbours since these will eventually affect our own internal challenges. This is just a brief environmental scan of some regional highlights.

CHINA:  Sometime during the latter part of this year, the Communist Party of China will hold its 19th Party National Congress where it is expected that a majority of the members of the Politburo Standing committee (highest decision making body) will be replaced.

Xi Jinping will almost certainly be re-elected as General Secretary; and, he is expected to continue amassing more powers. In fact, a number of China experts believe that this congress will bring to an end consensus politics in China and will cement Xi Jinping’s status as the successor to Mao rather than Deng. The need for a smooth leadership transition is expected to make the ruling Communist Party less tolerant of any threats to the continuing Communist Party rule which its leaders equate with the nation’s stability. Maintaining order will take precedence over economic reform. There are two major economic challenges.

The government must maintain its very low unemployment rate and continue its present GDP growth. At the same time, it must restructure its heavy industries, like coal and steel, and reduce its overcapacities. This means shifting the labor force from its heavy industries to other sectors of the economy. Second, the government must address the growing mountain of Chinese debt and curb borrowing among highly leveraged companies. This means that many companies in the heavy industry, construction and real estate sectors will be unable to avoid defaults which will threaten millions of jobs. 

China is also facing external threats to its economy and political stability. The first is Trump’s moves to reduce the U.S.A.’s $347 Billion trade deficit with China Washington could enact wide ranging protectionist measure against China. The second is North Korea where China is facing a dilemma between the need to stop Kim Jong Un’s nuclear threats; and’ China’s fear of a unified Korea at its doorstep. Finally, China’s Belt and Road grand program is facing increasing opposition from countries like India and Russia, who fear Chinese increasing global power.

INDONESIA: Indonesia’s newly elected president, Widodo, does not come from the country’s military and political elite. He remains popular but has been forced to scale down his reformist agenda. Politically, the most controversial political event is recent election of the Jakarta governor, the second most powerful political position in the country. 

Widodo’s candidate was the incumbent governor, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known as Ahok. He would have been the first elected Chinese-Christian governor of Jakarta had he won. In a run-off election, Anies Baswedan, an oppositionist standard bearer, defeated Asok who had become the subject of racist comments for being of Chinese descent. Asok also became the target of Islamic activists who have claimed that the Quran forbids Muslims from electing non-Muslim leaders. While the volatile election for Jakarta governor has ended, a more complicated era for Indonesian politics is just beginning. 

HONG KONG: On July 1, 1997 Hong Kong was back under China’s authority under 150 years of British rule. It was the start of a political experiment – One Country, Two systems. Twenty years later, the future of this experiment looks extremely doubtful. Xi Jinping has publicly drawn a “red line” on any further attempt for Hong Kong’s independence or self determination. China is aware that any threat to its rule in Hong Kong could have serious effects on the mainland’s population and fuel further demand for independence in Taiwan.

Support for independence has become increasingly popular among the younger population According to a recent poll, nearly 40% of Hong Kong’s youth support the notion of independence. The next generation of Hong Kong’s leaders may not be as willing to succumb to China’s authoritarian rule. 

As Hong Kong’s demands for self determination grows, its economic and strategic importance to China has vastly diminished. Over the past two decades, Hong Kong’s share of China’s GDP has decreased from 25% to 3%. Its role as the financial center is also being rapidly replaced by Shanghai. Hong Kong has also one of the highest rate of income inequality in the world. Over the past decade, median salaries have risen by 10% but property prices have risen by nearly 400%. Hong Kong’s economy has become more dependent on the Chinese mainland. The next question is how much longer will the One Country, Two Systems last.

SOUTH KOREA: The newly elected South Korean President Moon Jae In is considered as a left of center politician. In just a matter of months, he has already expressed differences with Japan and the United States on matters relating to North Korea. 

A former human rights lawyer, he wants to repeal South Korea’s national security law. He also favors a peaceful reunification between the two Koreas. He once said: “I am pro-US, but now South Korea should adopt diplomacy in which it can discuss a US request and say no to the Americans.” He has also said that he would like South Korea to take the lead on matters on the Korean peninsula.

Asia, including the Philippines, is a continent in the midst of transition. We can only hope thast the results would be a more peaceful and prosperous world. 

Creative writing classes for kids & teens

Young Writers’ Hangout for Kids & Teens on July 22, August 5 and August 19 (1:30-3pm/independent sessions). All sessions are at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street. For registration and fee details text 0917-6240196 or email [email protected].

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