Yellows

The Duterte administration has found its nemesis. It goes by the terrifying name “Yellows.”

Duterte, no less, used the nomenclature. He blamed the “Yellows” for stirring up anti-government protest actions with the end of ousting the sitting president and having the vice-president succeed him. It is a scenario reminiscent of 2001’s Edsa Dos that some call a popular rising and which Estrada supporters call an elitist conspiracy.

In this present version of the conspiracy theory, the “Yellows” are cynically using the Marcos burial at the Libingan to arouse public anger, bring people to the streets and eventually force out the President. The conspiracy, according to those who surround the President, is being funded by the billions of a Filipino-American widow.

For good measure, social media accounts have it that one senator, famous for counter-productive backchannel diplomacy, recently travelled to New York to meet with this Black Widow. We are not too sure about unverified social media accounts and so we leave both characters unnamed.

The conspiracy, if there indeed is one, runs against the wind.

The anti-burial protests, even if conspirators may be fostering them, turned out negligible. These were populated mainly by impressionable millennials searching for a cause in this age. The protests have an unseemly political goal: to dig out a corpse already buried. This brings our disconcerting propensity for necro-politics to its most absurd limits.

President Duterte, whatever gaffes he might have committed, remains hugely popular. Senator de Lima might call him a “murderer” and Senator Trillanes might call him a “wacko.” But most people see him an authentic political leader, unrehearsed and unvarnished.

He may routinely dish out threats and outlandishly stand by policemen accused of rubbing out a drug personality already in jail. He may be hopelessly drawn to cracking sexist jokes and poking fun at bishops. But the more he makes the prudes frown, the more lovable he becomes to his base.

There is no magic in what Duterte does. He is simply a genius at winning the crowd to his side. The other day, during a sortie to the Bicol region, he promised the crowd the region would get its fair share even if it did not vote for him. For good measure, he guaranteed the Bicolanos Leni Robredo will remain at her post to the end. The President drew wild applause.

In politics, there is a well-held maxim: no revolution happens when the economy is running well.

The economy is running well. The global financial volatility arising from Donald Trump’s surprising victory might have pushed our peso down and drained our stock market of hot money flowing back to the US in anticipation of better returns. No one, however, expects our pace of economic growth to slacken.

Budget Secretary Ben Diokno, in fact, appears more optimistic than most. He expects our growth rate to approach double-figures over the next couple of years. The robust growth is a confluence of many factors, not all of them attributable to the work of a new political leadership. As we see capital transfers from China come in next year and the large market of Russia opened for our exports, the bases for economic expansion should be sturdier.

For as long as Duterte confines himself to his meandering monologues, the economy is safe. Nothing he can conceivably say could be worse than what he has already said. He cannot torpedo our economy by the power of his mouth alone.

Besides, the election of Donald Trump now creates an opportunity for Duterte to walk back some of his strident anti-American rhetoric. The two unlikely leaders talked over the phone. They appear to have impressed each other.

Strategically, we have achieved the best of all possible diplomatic worlds. We have won back staunch Chinese support for our economic expansion. We have warmed up our relationship with Russia, to be capped early next year by a Dutete visit to Moscow. And yet we have somehow managed to conserve our strategic defense partnership with the US.

The “Yellows” might have been better off had Hillary Clinton won the White House. The Black Widow is a Hillary supporter. She wields some influence among leaders of the Democratic Party --- a party the lost the presidency and control of both houses of the US Congress.

The “Yellows” might have recovered some leverage if the economy was flagging. But the economy is surging and the business community is quite happy with the political status quo. The SWS reported a few days ago that unemployment has fallen to unprecedented levels. With the economy growing at 7% or better, that is to be expected.

The “Yellows” might have better footing if they are somehow capable of playing the “China card” to their advantage. But Beijing has nothing but disdain for the previous “Yellow” government. Every powerbroker in Chinatown is kowtowing to the Duterte line.

Besides, the “Yellows” have an outstanding record for political incompetence. Even if opportunity rams them in the nose, they have no capacity to seize it. Leni Robredo, who some wish would be the opposition’s Joan of Arc, has confessed to having zero political skills. She has professed no inclination for leading an incompetent army to an ill-conceived battle.

The anti-Duterte forces, alas, do not have a Lenin and Trotsky to lead a rising. All they have is a de Lima and a Trillianes. That is absolutely pathetic.

Therefore, we have to conclude Duterte is safely ensconced --- although there are those in the President’s fold who desperately need a nemesis to rail the masses against, the better to build a mass movement.