Duterte: RP’s Trump card

Game changer. That is how many people describe Mayor Rodrigo Duterte – whose last-minute entry into the presidential race seems to be causing a shift in the political landscape. Those who initially dismissed Duterte’s presidential bid as a joke and perceived him to be only popular in Davao are having second thoughts. The latest survey shows he is gaining ground not only among Mindanaoans but among voters in Metro Manila.

A very comprehensive private survey initiated by a business tycoon which was conducted last week of January with 3,000 registered voter-respondents showed Grace Poe at 27 percent statistically tied with Vice President Jejomar Binay (26 percent), Liberal Party candidate Mar Roxas (23 percent) with Duterte inching up at 19 percent. Duterte strategists point out that they have not even started with TV and radio ads yet. They expect the numbers to go up significantly in the next few weeks leading up to May 9.

We can’t help but see a similarity in the Duterte narrative to that of American business tycoon Donald Trump who is changing the US political landscape and riling his adversaries in the Republican primaries. Trump is outspoken and comes across as tactless and abrasive but straight to the point, which many middle Americans want to hear. They have grown weary of what they feel is empty rhetoric coming from traditional conservative politicians. Like Duterte, Trump is perceived as a straight shooter who does not tiptoe around issues and is not afraid to say what’s on his mind.

In the beginning, “serious” pols even saw Trump as some sort of a joke, and his entry into the race as nothing more than a publicity stunt. But they are certainly not laughing now because the business mogul is sweeping the primaries and emerging as the frontrunner, the latest of which as of this writing was the New Hampshire primaries where his rivals not even came close at his heels.

Americans see “The Donald” as an alternative to the typical Washington types who have not shown strong leadership and have betrayed the interest of the American populace before the altar of political expediency and compromise. No doubt his statements are controversial and have angered certain groups of people – he promised to put together a “deportation force” to send home 11 million illegal immigrants and said he would build a wall from California to Texas to prevent Mexicans from crossing the border – but these pronouncements strike a chord especially among average white collars who feel that Trump has articulated their sentiments on many other issues that include immigration, healthcare, crime, taxation, jobs and the economy. 

Duterte for his part is perceived as an out-of-the-mainstream politician who has no penchant for issuing motherhood statements. His tough-talking persona is certainly resonating across social classes, with top businessmen also admitting that they found his candor in answering questions charming and refreshing. In fact, at the recent Go Negosyo “Meet the Presidentiables” series of Joey Concepcion (see photos in This Week on PeopleAsia at the Allure section today), the ballroom of the Makati Fairmont hotel resonated with laughter at the manner by which Duterte fielded questions – soft expletives notwithstanding. But more than that, he came across as very adept on important issues.

The Davao mayor indicated his willingness to talk one-on-one with China regarding our territorial disputes involving the Spratlys, saying he is open to the idea of engaging in joint explorations at the West Philippine Sea to harness the rich natural resources in the disputed areas. The Mayor strongly believes we cannot go head-to-head with China militarily and that the arbitration case we filed before the United Nations has no real teeth.

Asked about US-Philippine relations, Duterte said he is not keen on the presence of American troops but he respects the Supreme Court’s ruling that the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement is constitutional. However, he does not believe the US would come to our aid so we should learn to paddle our own canoe.

It would be interesting to see how the dynamics would change with regard to US-Philippine relations should Trump and Duterte both win as president. Trump’s battle cry of “We will make America great again!” and his stance on immigration will certainly affect Filipinos living and working in the United States. On the other hand, the not-so-friendly attitude of Duterte (whose human rights records is also being questioned by Amnesty International) towards the Americans coupled with his perceived “let’s do it alone with China” stance could alter long-established policy and bilateral relations with our country’s closest ally. 

At the Rotary Club forum last Thursday with Serge Osmeña as guest speaker, I asked him to tell us with his usual candor about what he thinks of the presidential candidates. Serge said the track record of Duterte in Davao speaks for itself.  The mayor is the best bet when it comes to effective governance and establishing peace and order.  Mar was given all the opportunity to prove himself when he was DOTC head – both the traffic and the MRT are a mess. As DILG chief – peace and order is at its worst. As for Grace Poe, she could become president – but not at this time, Serge stated.

But based on the private comprehensive survey which I saw, it will be a tight race for the four presidential candidates. The survey validates what I have been saying in past columns – the more the candidates, the better the chances of Mar Roxas. If Grace Poe is disqualified, Vice President Binay goes up to 40 percent, Mar at 32 percent.

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